Sun, Aug 31, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Miami
Closing spread
ND -2.5
✓ MIA W
Total
50.5
▲ Over · 51 pts
Model before kickoff
ND 31–29 MIA
✗ ND (57%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenND -2.5
CloseND -2.5
Total50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenND -2.5
no move
CloseND -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open50.5
no move
Close50.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ND -2.5 · unchangedmodel ND -1.5
model ND -1.5
Opened 50.5 · unchangedmodel 60
model 60
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (157 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenND -2.5
CloseND -2.5
Total50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
ND as a 2.5-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: MIA won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 56%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 46%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 3.6; 53.9 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  CLEM @  FSU2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread |
-4.5 | 34–28 | W | O51 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3.5 | 31–32 | L | O54.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total |
-2 | 34–41 | L | O50 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total |
-2 | 10–28 | L | U55 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2.5 | 42–13 | W | U58.5 |
| Close |  PSU @  AUB2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 41–12 | W | O47.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread |
-3.5 | 17–24 | L | U57.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 20–13 | W | U47.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & team ratings |
-7 | 49–35 | W | O52.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation |
-5.5 | 21–14 | W | U52.5 |
OSU
ORE
UGA
ALA
MISS
LSU
TENN
USC
DUKEHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Notre Dame have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 430 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 9-1 90% | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% |
 MIA | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MIA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
77° · 1 mph
gusts 8 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ND1st game
MIA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Miamivs BCU →
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KENN @ 
WAKE
GT @ 
COLO
SYR vs 
CCU @ 
UVA
CAL @ 
ORST
VT vs 
SC