TCU @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Mon, Sep 1, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at North Carolina

Weather at kickoff67°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

TCU

0-0 · Power #33

▲ winner

Final

North Carolina

0-0 · Power #89

final

Closing spread

TCU -3.5

✓ TCU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 32–29 UNC

✓ TCU (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -2.5

CloseTCU -3.5

Total58.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -2.5

1 → TCU

CloseTCU -3.5

1 pt toward TCU

Total

Open58.5

▼ 4

Close54.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -2.5 · closed TCU -3.5 · moved 1 toward TCUmodel TCU -3

model TCU -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (145 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (63 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -2.5

CloseTCU -3.5

Total58.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 3.5-point road favorite at UNC, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 48–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 54.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 3.3; 51.7 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU @ SYR 2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-6	7–31	L	U55
Very close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	32–39	L	O54
Very close	UCF @ WVU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-3	21–31	L	U60.5
Very close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Very close	FRES @ ASU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.75	29–0	W	U48
Very close	TULN @ MEM 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-4.5	31–21	W	U55
Very close	SYR @ PUR 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-1	35–20	W	U56.5
Very close	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Very close	CIN @ SMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	29–27	L	U59.5
Very close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	16–31	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found