Sat, Aug 23, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site · Conference game
Closing spread
KSU -2.5
✓ ISU W
Total
51.5
▼ Under · 45 pts
Model before kickoff
ISU 26–28 KSU
✗ KSU (57%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenKSU -3
CloseKSU -2.5
Total49.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenKSU -3
0.5 → ISU
CloseKSU -2.5
0.5 pts toward Iowa State
Total
Open49.5
▲ 2
Close51.5
Up 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened KSU -3 · closed KSU -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward ISUmodel KSU -2
model KSU -2
Opened 49.5 · closed 51.5 · moved 2 upmodel 54.5
model 54.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Neutral-site favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 47%, covered 43% (43 games)ⓘ
Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 56% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenKSU -3
CloseKSU -2.5
Total49.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
KSU as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against ISU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: ISU won 24–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 51.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 56%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 46%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.8 against an average line of 3.7; 49.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Postseason · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-3 | 14–36 | L | U55.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 24–45 | L | O56.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total |
-3.5 | 20–15 | W | U47.5 |
| Close |  ND vs  BYU2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3.5 | 28–20 | W | U51.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread |
-2.5 | 31–34 | L | O56.5 |
| Close |  TA&M vs  ARK2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total |
-1.5 | 23–21 | W | U51 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings |
-6.5 | 34–27 | W | O52 |
| Close |  FSU vs  LSU2022 · Week 1 · close |
-4.5 | 24–23 | L | U51 |
| Close |
2023 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings |
-4 | 13–31 | L | U48.5 |
| Close |  FRES vs  WSU2022 · Postseason · close |
-5.5 | 29–6 | W | U54 |
COLO
NEB
BC
SMU
CLEM
MIZ
MEM
AUB
MDHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved up 2
49.5 → 51.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Iowa State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 24. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 ISU | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| KSU | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
ISU 2–0 KSU
ISU leads · 2 games since 2023 · ISU has won the last 2 meetings
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30 2024 | Kansas State 21 @ Iowa State 29 | ISU -2.5 | ISU W |
| Nov 25 2023 | Iowa State 42 @ Kansas State 35 | KSU -9.5 | ISU W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
68° · 3 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ISU1st game
KSU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Iowa Statevs SDAK →Kansas Statevs UND →
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