Sat, Aug 23, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game
Closing spread
WKU -10.5
✓ WKU W
Total
60.5
▲ Over · 65 pts
Model before kickoff
SHSU 19–28 WKU
✓ WKU (74%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenWKU -10.5
CloseWKU -10.5
Total61.5 → 60.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWKU -10.5
no move
CloseWKU -10.5
No change since the open
Total
Open61.5
▼ 1
Close60.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WKU -10.5 · unchangedmodel WKU -2
model WKU -2
Opened 61.5 · closed 60.5 · moved 1 downmodel 47.5
model 47.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 43% (96 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenWKU -10.5
CloseWKU -10.5
Total61.5 → 60.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
WKU as a 10.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: WKU won 41–24; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 60.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 74%
Favorite covered
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
5 of 956%
Normal range · usually 52%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 8.2; 56.9 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  ARST vs  ULM2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation |
-7.5 | 45–28 | W | O58.75 |
| Close |  NU vs  DUKE2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation |
-10 | 23–31 | L | U56 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & situation |
-9.75 | 24–21 | L | U55 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total |
-10.5 | 17–41 | L | O57.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation |
-7.5 | 33–26 | L | P59 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation |
-6.5 | 17–30 | L | U62.5 |
| Close |  CMU vs  USA2022 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation |
-6 | 24–38 | L | O57.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & situation |
-8.5 | 34–31 | L | O50 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation |
-9.5 | 35–20 | W | O51.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation |
-6 | 44–7 | W | U59.5 |
TEM
AKR
MSST
TOL
APP
GAST
CCU
TROY
MRSH
JXST
USMHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Sam Houston have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 193 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 SHSU | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| WKU | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
SHSU 0–2 WKU
WKU leads · 2 games since 2023 · WKU has won the last 2 meetings
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 2024 | Western Kentucky 31 @ Sam Houston 14 | SHSU -1.5 | WKU W |
| Nov 18 2023 | Sam Houston 23 @ Western Kentucky 28 | WKU -10 | SHSU W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
WKU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
82° · 9 mph
gusts 18 mph · at kickoff
Rest
SHSU1st game
WKU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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