UTEP @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Utah State

Weather at kickoff77°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

UTEP

0-0 · Power #131

final

Final

Utah State

0-0 · Power #86

▲ winner

Closing spread

USU -4.5

✓ USU W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 28–33 USU

✓ USU (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSU -6.5

CloseUSU -4.5

Total61.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSU -6.5

2 → UTEP

CloseUSU -4.5

2 pts toward UTEP

Total

Open61.5

▼ 3

Close58.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USU -6.5 · closed USU -4.5 · moved 2 toward UTEPmodel USU -9

model USU -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 52% (141 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (111 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSU -6.5

CloseUSU -4.5

Total61.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 4.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 28–16; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 58.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15 against an average line of 5.9; 61.4 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JXST vs USM 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total	-6	44–7	W	U59.5
Very close	UNLV vs CSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	25–23	L	U60
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Very close	UNT vs WYO 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	44–17	W	O55
Very close	APP vs GAST 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-7.5	33–26	L	P59
Close	WKU vs NMSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-5	29–38	L	O54.5
Close	ARST vs ULM 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & total	-7.5	45–28	W	O58.75
Close	USU vs SDSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & total	-5	41–20	W	O60
Close	UAB vs TLSA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings	-2.5	59–21	W	O57.5
Close	CMU vs USA 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total	-6	24–38	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found