Georgia State @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Ole Miss

Weather at kickoff79°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

0-0 · Power #125

final

Final

Ole Miss

0-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -33.5

✓ MISS W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 11–45 MISS

✓ MISS (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -35.5

CloseMISS -33.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -35.5

2 → GAST

CloseMISS -33.5

2 pts toward Georgia State

Total

Open60.5

▲ 1

Close61.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -35.5 · closed MISS -33.5 · moved 2 toward GASTmodel MISS -35

model MISS -35

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 31.5–35.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 49% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (112 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -35.5

CloseMISS -33.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 33.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 63–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 61.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 42.7 against an average line of 34.6; 56.7 points a game (usually 56.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX vs RICE 2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-35.25	37–10	L	U59
Very close	TEX vs CSU 2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-35	52–0	W	U62.5
Very close	ALA vs USF 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total	-31	42–16	L	U64.5
Close	MISS vs GASO 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-35	52–13	W	U68.5
Close	OSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation	-37.5	56–0	W	O54.5
Close	OSU vs TOL 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-31.5	77–21	W	O63
Close	MIZ vs BUFF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation	-34.5	38–0	W	U52
Close	TEX vs UTSA 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-35.5	56–7	W	O56.5
Close	MSU vs AKR 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation	-34.5	52–0	W	U56
Close	MISS vs ULM 2023 · Week 12 · close	-36	35–3	L	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found