Toledo @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Sat, Aug 30, 2025, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Kentucky

Weather at kickoff74°F7 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Toledo

0-0 · Power #48

final

Final

Kentucky

0-0 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

UK -9.5

✓ TOL W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 18–29 UK

✓ UK (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -9.5

CloseUK -9.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUK -9.5

no move

CloseUK -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UK -9.5 · unchangedmodel UK -13.5

model UK -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 45% (98 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -9.5

CloseUK -9.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 9.5-point home favorite against TOL, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 24–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.4 against an average line of 9.9; 48.4 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-9.5	23–24	L	O46
Very close	MINN vs UL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	35–24	W	O48.5
Very close	TULN vs USM 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total	-11.75	24–27	L	O48.5
Very close	ILL vs TOL 2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9	30–28	L	O45.5
Very close	NCSU vs STAN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	59–28	W	O46.5
Very close	AFA vs SDSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-10.5	49–10	W	O43.5
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	CAL vs UNLV 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & situation	-12.5	20–14	L	U49.5
Very close	UCLA vs FRES 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-7.5	20–13	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found