Western Kentucky @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Toledo

Weather at kickoff64°F9 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

2-0 · Power #94

final

Final

Toledo

0-1 · Power #48

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -7.5

✓ TOL W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 24–31 TOL

✓ TOL (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -6.5

CloseTOL -7.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -6.5

1 → TOL

CloseTOL -7.5

1 pt toward Toledo

Total

Open58.5

▼ 2

Close56.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -6.5 · closed TOL -7.5 · moved 1 toward TOLmodel TOL -3

model TOL -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 56% (129 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 62% (39 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -6.5

CloseTOL -7.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 7.5-point home favorite against WKU, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 45–21; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 5.9; 61.2 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CMU vs USA 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total	-6	24–38	L	O57.5
Close	HOU vs TULN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-5.5	24–27	L	U52
Close	HOU vs KU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	30–48	L	O58
Close	WAKE vs UL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-3	38–41	L	O59.5
Close	FRES vs SJSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	33–10	W	U55
Loose	NIU vs VAN 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-2.5	28–38	L	O58.5
Loose	ARST vs TLSA 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-9	28–24	L	U65.5
Loose	COLO vs BAY 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	38–31	W	O52.5
Loose	NU vs DUKE 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-10	23–31	L	U56
Loose	AUB vs WKU 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-5	41–17	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WW	2-0	100%	—	—
TOL W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: WKU away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OO	2-0	100%	2-0
TOL U	0-1	0%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 386 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
TOL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WKU 1–0 TOL WKU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WKU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Toledo 21 @ Western Kentucky 26	TOL -2.5	WKU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−8.3 →−2.8▲ 5.5#78

TOL−4.5 →−3.0▲ 1.5#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

WKU

Longer bar = better

TOL

#40

Offense

◀ WKU better

#111

#51

Defense

◀ WKU better

#88

0.0 #80

Turnovers

TOL better ▶

+1.0 #50

79 plays #13

Pace

◀ WKU faster

69 plays #60

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: WKU offense

	WKU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	48.0 #20	24.0 #98	WKU
Yards / play	6.77 #35	4.62 #62	WKU
PPA / play	+0.29 #48	+0.06 #78	WKU
Success rate	46% #57	48% #112	WKU

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: WKU defense

	TOL off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #102	15.0 #63	WKU
Yards / play	4.77 #97	4.81 #75	WKU
PPA / play	−0.11 #122	−0.14 #37	WKU
Success rate	31% #124	28% #27	WKU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.