Nevada @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Western Kentucky

Weather at kickoff81°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Nevada

1-2 · Power #121

final

Final

Western Kentucky

2-1 · Power #94

▲ winner

Closing spread

WKU -7.5

✓ WKU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 24–32 WKU

✓ WKU (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -10.5

CloseWKU -7.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -10.5

3 → NEV

CloseWKU -7.5

3 pts toward Nevada

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -10.5 · closed WKU -7.5 · moved 3 toward NEVmodel WKU -12

model WKU -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 57% (138 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (143 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -10.5

CloseWKU -7.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 7.5-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 31–16; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.1 against an average line of 7.6; 51.3 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5
Close	UL vs USM 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-8.5	31–34	L	O52.5
Close	UL vs TROY 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	51–30	W	O51.5
Close	APP vs ECU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	43–28	W	O48.25
Close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Close	EMU vs MASS 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	19–17	L	U49.75
Close	USA vs TROY 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form	-10	25–9	W	U53
Close	MEM vs RICE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-7	27–20	P	U50.5
Close	ARMY vs GAST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	14–31	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV WLL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0
WKU WWL	2-1	67%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; WKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV OUU	1-2	33%	1-2
WKU OOO	3-0	100%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 24. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
WKU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−9.7 →−13.2▼ 3.5#119

WKU−8.3 →−5.9▲ 2.4#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

NEV

Longer bar = better

WKU

#114

Offense

WKU better ▶

#62

#102

Defense

WKU better ▶

#74

−1.7 #131

Turnovers

WKU better ▶

−0.3 #92

60 plays #120

Pace

WKU faster ▶

75 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: WKU defense

	NEV off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	14.7 #124	25.0 #87	WKU
Yards / play	5.42 #92	5.86 #102	Even
PPA / play	−0.11 #135	+0.06 #73	WKU
Success rate	39% #104	35% #34	WKU

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: WKU offense

	WKU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #36	25.7 #93	WKU
Yards / play	6.23 #52	5.64 #95	WKU
PPA / play	+0.14 #76	+0.16 #103	WKU
Success rate	42% #82	46% #116	WKU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	0.0 #125	9.7 #56	9.7 #105	0.0 #127	5.0 #92	5.0 #127
WKU allowed	10.0 #118	5.7 #46	15.7 #96	9.3 #118	0.0 #1	9.3 #51

WKU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	9.3 #25	13.7 #23	23.0 #22	5.7 #73	10.3 #23	16.0 #44
NEV allowed	5.7 #85	9.0 #91	14.7 #91	4.0 #49	7.0 #80	11.0 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.