UTSA @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 9:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Colorado State

Weather at kickoff60°F4 mphgusts 9Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UTSA

1-2 · Power #65

▲ winner

Final

Colorado State

1-1 · Power #116

final

Closing spread

UTSA -5.5

✓ CSU W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 31–26 CSU

✓ UTSA (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -3.5

CloseUTSA -5.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTSA -3.5

2 → UTSA

CloseUTSA -5.5

2 pts toward UTSA

Total

Open58.5

no move

Close58.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTSA -3.5 · closed UTSA -5.5 · moved 2 toward UTSAmodel UTSA -0.5

model UTSA -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (105 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (169 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTSA -3.5

CloseUTSA -5.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 5.5-point road favorite at CSU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 17–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 5.2; 60.6 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-5	24–27	L	U56.5
Very close	UL @ CCU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	34–24	W	O57
Close	USF @ RICE 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	28–35	L	O54
Close	COLO @ CSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	28–9	W	U58.5
Close	BYU @ LIB 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-7	14–41	L	U58
Close	ODU @ ARST 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-5.5	40–32	W	O58.5
Close	CCU @ GAST 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	41–24	W	O63.5
Close	UTSA @ ARMY 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & season form	-2	41–38	W	O54
Close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Close	WSU @ FRES 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	25–17	W	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
CSU WL	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: UTSA away, as favorite; CSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA OOO	3-0	100%	1-2
CSU OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 46 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	9-1 90%
CSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA−2.5 →−1.5▲ 1.0#74

CSU−6.9 →−7.0▼ 0.1#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UTSA

Longer bar = better

CSU

#53

Offense

◀ UTSA better

#96

#106

Defense

CSU better ▶

#81

+1.7 #10

Turnovers

◀ UTSA better

−1.5 #131

71 plays #28

Pace

◀ UTSA faster

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: UTSA offense

	UTSA off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #44	27.5 #98	UTSA
Yards / play	5.98 #61	5.34 #70	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #34	+0.06 #65	UTSA
Success rate	44% #74	43% #91	Even

When CSU has the ball

Even matchup

	CSU off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #108	35.0 #125	Even
Yards / play	4.82 #125	6.14 #115	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #102	+0.23 #117	Even
Success rate	47% #47	41% #68	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	4.3 #101	11.7 #37	16.0 #71	11.7 #8	8.3 #55	20.0 #18
CSU allowed	7.0	5.0	12.0	10.5	5.0	15.5

CSU scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	3.5	3.5	7.0	10.5	3.5	14.0
UTSA allowed	3.0 #38	10.3 #119	13.3 #87	12.7 #133	9.0 #109	21.7 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.