Arkansas @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Memphis

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Arkansas

2-1 · Power #40

final

Final

Memphis

3-0 · Power #61

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARK -7.5

✓ MEM W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 33–25 MEM

✗ ARK (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -6.5

CloseARK -7.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARK -6.5

1 → ARK

CloseARK -7.5

1 pt toward Arkansas

Total

Open61.5

▼ 2

Close59.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARK -6.5 · closed ARK -7.5 · moved 1 toward ARKmodel ARK -6.5

model ARK -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (107 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 62% (45 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -6.5

CloseARK -7.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARK as a 7.5-point road favorite at MEM, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 32–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 59.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 5.8; 61.3 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX @ TTU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	34–37	L	O60.25
Close	UCF @ ECU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	13–34	L	U63
Close	BOIS @ UNLV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-4	29–24	W	U64
Close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-8	63–31	W	O54
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Close	SMU @ MEM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	38–34	L	O64.5
Close	MIA @ LOU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form	-4.5	52–45	W	O61
Close	ASU @ MSST 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.75	20–24	L	U58.5
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
MEM WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: ARK away, as favorite; MEM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK UOO	2-1	67%	2-1
MEM UUU	0-3	0%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 275 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
MEM	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+8.7 →+13.3▲ 4.6#19

MEM+2.2 →+5.3▲ 3.1#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ARK

Longer bar = better

MEM

Offense

◀ ARK better

#40

#88

Defense

MEM better ▶

#27

+0.3 #60

Turnovers

MEM better ▶

+0.7 #44

69 plays #47

Pace

◀ ARK faster

64 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	47.7 #11	11.0 #21	Even
Yards / play	8.29 #4	4.09 #22	Even
PPA / play	+0.53 #4	−0.03 #36	ARK
Success rate	56% #12	34% #28	Even

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #43	20.7 #68	MEM
Yards / play	6.54 #35	4.90 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #42	+0.18 #105	MEM
Success rate	49% #39	48% #124	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 119 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	15.0 #5	16.3 #12	31.3 #4	9.3 #25	7.0 #56	16.3 #37
MEM allowed	3.0 #41	5.7 #41	8.7 #40	0.0 #1	2.3 #18	2.3 #2

MEM scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	9.3 #23	12.7 #26	22.0 #29	8.0 #38	7.0 #56	15.0 #47
ARK allowed	7.0 #89	10.3 #98	17.3 #102	2.3 #20	1.0 #7	3.3 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.