South Carolina @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F5 mphgusts 17Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

South Carolina

2-1 · Power #43

final

Final

Missouri

3-0 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -10.5

✓ SC W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 19–31 MIZ

✓ MIZ (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -11.5

CloseMIZ -10.5

Total45.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -11.5

1 → SC

CloseMIZ -10.5

1 pt toward South Carolina

Total

Open45.5

▲ 3

Close48.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -11.5 · closed MIZ -10.5 · moved 1 toward SCmodel MIZ -16

model MIZ -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 42% (106 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (191 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -11.5

CloseMIZ -10.5

Total45.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 10.5-point home favorite against SC, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 29–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.1 against an average line of 12.7; 52.3 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TENN vs FLA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	23–17	L	U55.5
Close	ISU vs UCF 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-13	38–35	L	O49.5
Close	MD vs MSU 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-8	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Close	PSU vs WASH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	35–6	W	U48
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	IU vs MICH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-14.5	20–15	L	U47.5
Close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Close	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.5	48–34	L	O55
Loose	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	44–17	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC WLL	1-2	33%	—	—
MIZ WWW	3-0	100%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: SC away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC UUU	0-3	0%	2-1
MIZ OOO	3-0	100%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 443 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SC	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
MIZ	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SC 1–1 MIZ Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · SC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Missouri 30 @ South Carolina 34	SC -10.5	MIZ W
Oct 21 2023	South Carolina 12 @ Missouri 34	MIZ -7.5	MIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC+13.9 →+6.5▼ 7.4#41

MIZ+10.7 →+18.1▲ 7.4#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#99

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#12

#55

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#27

0.0 #80

Turnovers

MIZ better ▶

+0.3 #57

58 plays #129

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

80 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	SC off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #96	15.7 #39	MIZ
Yards / play	5.19 #106	4.10 #23	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.12 #78	−0.04 #33	MIZ
Success rate	37% #117	31% #14	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	51.7 #8	17.3 #43	MIZ
Yards / play	7.31 #16	4.72 #46	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.41 #11	+0.02 #60	MIZ
Success rate	56% #11	40% #69	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

SC scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	4.7 #89	6.7 #91	11.3 #96	7.0 #55	4.7 #95	11.7 #82
MIZ allowed	7.0 #99	3.3 #20	10.3 #56	1.0 #12	4.3 #39	5.3 #15

MIZ scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	9.7 #21	18.7 #3	28.3 #9	9.3 #27	14.0 #2	23.3 #5
SC allowed	4.0 #59	4.3 #33	8.3 #40	2.3 #25	6.7 #77	9.0 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.