Sam Houston @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Texas

Weather at kickoff90°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

0-3 · Power #135

final

Final

Texas

2-1 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -39.5

✓ TEX W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 3–43 TEX

✓ TEX (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -40.5

CloseTEX -39.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -40.5

1 → SHSU

CloseTEX -39.5

1 pt toward Sam Houston

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -40.5 · closed TEX -39.5 · moved 1 toward SHSUmodel TEX -40

model TEX -40

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 37.5–41.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 55% (62 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (195 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -40.5

CloseTEX -39.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 39.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 55–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 51.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 40.8 against an average line of 38; 58.6 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TENN vs UTEP 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-41.5	56–0	W	O54
Close	UGA vs MASS 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & total	-42.5	59–21	L	O55.5
Close	NCST vs CONN 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-38.5	41–10	L	O47.75
Close	TA&M vs NMSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-38.5	38–3	L	U54.5
Close	WISC vs NMSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & season form	-37.5	66–7	W	O45.25
Close	OSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-37.5	45–0	W	U55.5
Loose	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · loose	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Loose	UGA vs MSST 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-34	41–31	L	O53.5
Loose	UGA vs GT 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-36.5	37–14	L	O49
Loose	UGA vs VAN 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread	-37.5	55–0	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-3
TEX LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU OUO	2-1	67%	0-3
TEX UUU	0-3	0%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 512 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%
TEX	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−8.0 →−13.8▼ 5.8#121

TEX+23.2 →+20.4▼ 2.8#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

SHSU

Longer bar = better

TEX

#118

Offense

TEX better ▶

#103

#108

Defense

TEX better ▶

#12

+0.7 #46

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #45

64 plays #101

Pace

TEX faster ▶

71 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	SHSU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #104	10.3 #12	TEX
Yards / play	4.98 #116	3.97 #13	TEX
PPA / play	−0.08 #134	−0.29 #3	TEX
Success rate	37% #118	33% #18	TEX

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #92	38.7 #132	TEX
Yards / play	5.39 #96	6.06 #108	Even
PPA / play	−0.09 #136	+0.11 #85	SHSU
Success rate	42% #89	44% #105	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	4.3 #100	3.3 #125	7.7 #120	7.0 #59	7.0 #68	14.0 #65
TEX allowed	0.0 #1	5.7 #45	5.7 #19	0.0 #1	4.7 #49	4.7 #10

TEX scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	7.0 #60	7.0 #95	14.0 #81	5.3 #81	4.7 #102	10.0 #100
SHSU allowed	9.3 #122	11.0 #120	20.3 #123	8.0 #117	10.3 #119	18.3 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.