Marshall @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Middle Tennessee

Weather at kickoff84°F4 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Marshall

1-2 · Power #88

▲ winner

Final

Middle Tennessee

1-2 · Power #128

final

Closing spread

MRSH -2.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 26–23 MTSU

✓ MRSH (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -3.5

CloseMRSH -2.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMRSH -3.5

1 → MTSU

CloseMRSH -2.5

1 pt toward Middle Tennessee

Total

Open47.5

▼ 2

Close45.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MRSH -3.5 · closed MRSH -2.5 · moved 1 toward MTSUmodel MRSH -5

model MRSH -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 45% (176 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (75 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -3.5

CloseMRSH -2.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 2.5-point road favorite at MTSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 42–28; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 4.1; 44.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF @ KENT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	24–6	W	U44
Very close	LT @ FIU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	10–17	L	U49
Very close	CSU @ AFA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	21–13	W	U44
Very close	ORST @ AFA 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	0–28	L	U44.5
Very close	EMU @ AKR 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	21–25	L	U50.5
Very close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	13–17	L	U45
Very close	CMU @ BALL 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5	17–24	L	U42
Very close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1	41–30	W	O48
Very close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Very close	USU @ CONN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	34–33	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
MTSU LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: MRSH away, as favorite; MTSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH OUU	1-2	33%	1-2
MTSU UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q3. Of 341 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSH	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
MTSU	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MRSH 6–5 MTSU MRSH leads · 11 games since 2013 · MRSH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−1.7 →−10.2▼ 8.5#111

MTSU−18.0 →−17.6▲ 0.4#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MRSH

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#117

Offense

Even

#125

#89

Defense

Even

#99

0.0 #75

Turnovers

MTSU better ▶

+0.7 #45

60 plays #122

Pace

MTSU faster ▶

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Even matchup

	MRSH off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #102	29.7 #109	Even
Yards / play	4.77 #119	5.98 #105	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #114	+0.20 #114	Even
Success rate	34% #131	40% #68	MTSU

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: MRSH defense

	MTSU off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	12.7 #130	24.3 #86	MRSH
Yards / play	3.85 #136	5.37 #82	MRSH
PPA / play	−0.06 #127	+0.20 #111	Even
Success rate	38% #108	41% #77	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	5.7 #80	10.3 #45	16.0 #64	3.3 #101	2.3 #122	5.7 #122
MTSU allowed	4.7 #67	11.3 #118	16.0 #97	5.7 #79	8.0 #93	13.7 #97

MTSU scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	1.0 #123	4.7 #110	5.7 #124	2.3 #113	4.7 #95	7.0 #115
MRSH allowed	4.7 #67	5.7 #46	10.3 #56	9.3 #118	4.7 #47	14.0 #102

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.