Troy @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Buffalo

Weather at kickoff72°F10 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Troy

1-2 · Power #99

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo

2-1 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

BUFF -6.5

✓ TROY W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 21–26 BUFF

✗ BUFF (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -7.5

CloseBUFF -6.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUFF -7.5

1 → TROY

CloseBUFF -6.5

1 pt toward Troy

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUFF -7.5 · closed BUFF -6.5 · moved 1 toward TROYmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (165 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 60% (47 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -7.5

CloseBUFF -6.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 6.5-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 21–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.8 against an average line of 5.6; 53.8 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 6 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	26–41	L	O48
Close	FAU vs ECU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	7–22	L	U44.75
Close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Close	CONN vs RICE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	17–10	W	U47
Close	OHIO vs BUFF 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-4	47–16	W	O46.5
Close	OKST vs USA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	7–33	L	U49.25
Close	OHIO vs M-OH 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	16–30	L	O39
Close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	48–41	W	O44
Close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
BUFF WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; BUFF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY OUU	1-2	33%	1-2
BUFF UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 24. 56% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
BUFF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−7.1 →−6.3▲ 0.8#86

BUFF−9.8 →−9.2▲ 0.6#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TROY

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#115

Offense

BUFF better ▶

#77

#82

Defense

BUFF better ▶

#66

0.0 #79

Turnovers

◀ TROY better

−0.7 #105

62 plays #110

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	TROY off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #107	19.0 #53	BUFF
Yards / play	4.46 #130	4.74 #49	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.04 #109	+0.14 #97	Even
Success rate	38% #112	39% #65	BUFF

When BUFF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUFF off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #73	25.0 #89	Even
Yards / play	5.61 #80	5.56 #94	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #62	+0.03 #64	Even
Success rate	41% #91	42% #81	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 123 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	2.3 #110	7.7 #75	10.0 #97	1.0 #117	9.3 #31	10.3 #85
BUFF allowed	2.3 #28	5.7 #42	8.0 #35	3.3 #36	7.7 #84	11.0 #69

BUFF scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	5.7 #71	6.7 #85	12.3 #86	11.7 #7	4.7 #91	16.3 #39
TROY allowed	2.3 #28	9.0 #85	11.3 #59	8.0 #104	5.7 #57	13.7 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.