Buffalo @ Kent State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Kent State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

1-1 · Power #118

▲ winner

Final

Kent State

1-1 · Power #132

final

Closing spread

BUFF -24.5

✓ KENT W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 39–15 KENT

✓ BUFF (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -22.5

CloseBUFF -24.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUFF -22.5

2 → BUFF

CloseBUFF -24.5

2 pts toward Buffalo

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUFF -22.5 · closed BUFF -24.5 · moved 2 toward BUFFmodel BUFF -21

model BUFF -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (156 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -22.5

CloseBUFF -24.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 24.5-point road favorite at KENT, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 31–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20 against an average line of 21.7; 51.6 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USA @ USM 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	35–14	L	U54
Close	NIU @ KENT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-20.5	37–27	L	O44.75
Close	OHIO @ KENT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings	-20.5	41–0	W	U53
Close	MTSU @ FIU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-19.5	33–28	L	O54.5
Loose	TROY @ ULM 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-21.5	45–14	W	O46.75
Loose	BUFF @ MASS 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-17	34–7	W	U47.5
Loose	LIB @ KENN 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-27	24–27	L	O48
Loose	SMU @ TEM 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24	55–0	W	O53
Loose	AFA @ HAW 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-20.5	13–27	L	U47.5
Loose	FRES @ NEV 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-22.5	41–14	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
KENT –L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: BUFF away, as favorite; KENT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF UO	1-1	50%	1-1
KENT –O	1-0	100%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 394 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
KENT	1-9 10%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BUFF 2–0 KENT BUFF leads · 2 games since 2023 · BUFF has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 26 2024	Kent State 7 @ Buffalo 43	BUFF -23.5	BUFF W
Oct 21 2023	Buffalo 24 @ Kent State 6	BUFF -6.5	BUFF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−9.8 →−7.3▲ 2.5#100

KENT−26.4 →−29.1▼ 2.7#136

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

BUFF

Longer bar = better

KENT

#82

Offense

◀ BUFF better

#125

#64

Defense

◀ BUFF better

#107

−0.5 #96

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #109

65 plays #87

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

58 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: BUFF offense

	BUFF off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #74	39.5 #129	BUFF
Yards / play	5.07 #101	6.45 #120	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #62	+0.16 #106	BUFF
Success rate	41% #89	39% #71	Even

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	KENT off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #113	14.5 #46	BUFF
Yards / play	4.63 #118	4.29 #38	BUFF
PPA / play	−0.21 #135	+0.11 #93	BUFF
Success rate	29% #134	40% #77	BUFF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 17 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	8.5	5.0	13.5	10.5	3.5	14.0
KENT allowed	10.5	15.0	25.5	5.0	9.0	14.0

KENT scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	0.0	3.5	3.5	3.5	10.5	14.0
BUFF allowed	0.0	5.0	5.0	1.5	8.0	9.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.