NC State @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Thu, Sep 11, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

NC State

2-0 · Power #44

▲ winner

Final

Wake Forest

2-0 · Power #53

final

Closing spread

NCSU -7.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 31–24 WAKE

✓ NCSU (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -7.5

CloseNCSU -7.5

Total56.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNCSU -7.5

no move

CloseNCSU -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

▼ 4

Close52.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -7.5 · unchangedmodel NCSU -7

model NCSU -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (103 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -7.5

CloseNCSU -7.5

Total56.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 7.5-point road favorite at WAKE, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 34–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 6.2; 52.5 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	27–34	L	O56
Close	AFA @ UNLV 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-10	42–7	W	U50
Close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-6	42–14	W	O53
Close	FRES @ USU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	37–32	L	O56
Close	UNLV @ SJSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	27–16	W	U59.5
Close	BYU @ LIB 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-7	14–41	L	U58
Close	UVA @ CCU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	43–24	W	O52
Close	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	13–20	L	U54.5
Close	WVU @ VT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2	33–10	W	U49.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1
WAKE LW	1-1	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: NCSU away, as favorite; WAKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU UO	1-1	50%	2-0
WAKE UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 449 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
WAKE	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NCSU 1–1 WAKE Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · WAKE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Wake Forest 34 @ NC State 30	NCSU -4.5	WAKE W
Nov 11 2023	NC State 26 @ Wake Forest 6	NCSU -1.5	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+0.7 →+2.0▲ 1.3#62

WAKE−4.6 →−6.9▼ 2.3#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NCSU

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#50

Offense

◀ NCSU better

#70

#92

Defense

WAKE better ▶

#14

0.0 #68

Turnovers

◀ NCSU better

−0.5 #91

64 plays #92

Pace

WAKE faster ▶

66 plays #65

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: WAKE defense

	NCSU off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #60	9.5 #21	WAKE
Yards / play	6.55 #44	3.59 #12	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.27 #39	−0.17 #16	WAKE
Success rate	46% #57	28% #8	WAKE

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #80	24.0 #86	Even
Yards / play	6.74 #34	6.22 #112	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.13 #77	+0.22 #115	WAKE
Success rate	41% #88	37% #55	NCSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 8 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	5.0	10.5	15.5	14.0	0.0	14.0
WAKE allowed	3.0	1.5	4.5	1.5	3.5	5.0

WAKE scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	14.0	0.0	14.0	12.0	0.0	12.0
NCSU allowed	7.0	8.5	15.5	3.5	5.0	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.