Virginia @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at NC State

Weather at kickoff85°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

1-0 · Power #32

final

Final

NC State

1-0 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

NCSU -2.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 26–28 NCSU

✓ NCSU (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -2.5

CloseNCSU -2.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNCSU -2.5

no move

CloseNCSU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -2.5 · unchangedmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 49% (219 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -2.5

CloseNCSU -2.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 35–31; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 52.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 4.2; 58.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CMU vs USA 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6	24–38	L	O57.5
Loose	VT vs RUTG 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.25	23–26	L	O44.75
Loose	TCU vs UCF 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2.5	34–35	L	O61.5
Loose	BAY vs BYU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3	28–34	L	O46.5
Loose	TA&M vs MIA 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6.5	17–9	W	U45.5
Loose	FRES vs GASO 2025 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2	42–14	W	O51.5
Loose	JXST vs CCU 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3.5	27–55	L	O54.5
Loose	APP vs JMU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-6.25	28–32	L	O57
Loose	TULN vs SMU 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–26	L	U47.5
Loose	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & rest	-6	44–31	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA W	1-0	100%	—	—
NCSU L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA O	1-0	100%	1-0
NCSU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 425 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
NCSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UVA 0–1 NCSU NCSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NCSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 22 2023	NC State 24 @ Virginia 21	NCSU -8.5	UVA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−1.6 →+3.3▲ 4.9#55

NCSU+0.7 →+1.0▲ 0.3#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

UVA

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#31

Offense

◀ UVA better

#72

#22

Defense

◀ UVA better

#77

+3.0 #5

Turnovers

◀ UVA better

−1.0 #100

79 plays #12

Pace

◀ UVA faster

70 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	48.0 #18	17.0 #72	UVA
Yards / play	5.75 #64	5.58 #98	UVA
PPA / play	+0.44 #22	+0.12 #89	UVA
Success rate	57% #19	34% #48	UVA

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: UVA defense

	NCSU off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #76	7.0 #23	UVA
Yards / play	6.04 #56	3.79 #29	UVA
PPA / play	+0.13 #74	−0.28 #15	UVA
Success rate	41% #83	26% #20	UVA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.