Troy @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Clemson

Weather at kickoff78°F4 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Troy

1-0 · Power #99

final

Final

Clemson

0-1 · Power #34

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLEM -29.5

✓ TROY W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 11–40 CLEM

✓ CLEM (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -31.5

CloseCLEM -29.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -31.5

2 → TROY

CloseCLEM -29.5

2 pts toward Troy

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -31.5 · closed CLEM -29.5 · moved 2 toward TROYmodel CLEM -25.5

model CLEM -25.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–31.5 since 2023: won 99%, covered 54% (72 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (117 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -31.5

CloseCLEM -29.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like CLEM as a 29.5-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CLEM won 27–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 5 similar games. 43 points stayed under 51.5, as in 1 of 5.

Favorite won

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 18.8 against an average line of 26.4; 60.4 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CLEM vs FAU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-25	48–14	W	O51.5
Loose	PSU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-28	46–10	W	O55
Loose	FLA vs USF 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-23.5	31–28	L	O58
Loose	BAY vs TXST 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-30	42–7	W	U53
Loose	MIA vs MTSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-25.5	31–45	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY W	1-0	100%	—	—
CLEM L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY O	1-0	100%	1-0
CLEM U	0-1	0%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
CLEM	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TROY 0–3 CLEM CLEM leads · 3 games since 2011 · CLEM has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−7.1 →−5.7▲ 1.4#95

CLEM+15.2 →+14.6▼ 0.6#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

TROY

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#46

Offense

◀ TROY better

#117

#67

Defense

Even

#80

+1.0 #47

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #52

68 plays #67

Pace

◀ TROY faster

58 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: TROY offense

	TROY off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #43	17.0 #79	TROY
Yards / play	6.12 #52	5.09 #88	TROY
PPA / play	+0.31 #44	0.00 #60	Even
Success rate	50% #43	41% #91	TROY

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: TROY defense

	CLEM off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	10.0 #125	20.0 #86	TROY
Yards / play	4.50 #107	4.79 #74	TROY
PPA / play	−0.09 #120	−0.08 #47	TROY
Success rate	34% #115	36% #59	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.