Arkansas State @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Arkansas

Weather at kickoff74°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

1-0 · Power #110

final

Final

Arkansas

1-0 · Power #40

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARK -24.5

✓ ARK W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 18–42 ARK

✓ ARK (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -23.5

CloseARK -24.5

Total63.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARK -23.5

1 → ARK

CloseARK -24.5

1 pt toward Arkansas

Total

Open63.5

▼ 2

Close61.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARK -23.5 · closed ARK -24.5 · moved 1 toward ARKmodel ARK -22.5

model ARK -22.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–25.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 50% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (143 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -23.5

CloseARK -24.5

Total63.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARK as a 24.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARK won 56–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 61.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.5 against an average line of 24.6; 60.7 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs MTSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-25.5	31–45	L	O53.5
Close	PSU vs CMU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-28	33–14	L	U61.5
Loose	MD vs CLT 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24.5	38–20	L	O50
Loose	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Loose	CLEM vs STAN 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-24	40–14	W	U58
Loose	BOIS vs SDSU 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & rest	-24.5	56–24	W	O55.5
Loose	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Loose	BOIS vs NEV 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-23.5	28–21	L	U61.5
Loose	ORE vs COLO 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21	42–6	W	U70
Loose	BAY vs TXST 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-30	42–7	W	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST W	1-0	100%	—	—
ARK L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; ARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST O	1-0	100%	1-0
ARK U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 189 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ARK	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−9.7 →−9.6▲ 0.1#106

ARK+8.7 →+8.2▼ 0.5#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

ARST

Longer bar = better

ARK

#36

Offense

ARK better ▶

#22

#93

Defense

ARK better ▶

#74

0.0 #70

Turnovers

ARK better ▶

+2.0 #20

68 plays #66

Pace

ARK faster ▶

76 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: ARST offense

	ARST off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #31	7.0 #27	Even
Yards / play	7.24 #22	4.27 #48	ARST
PPA / play	+0.33 #39	+0.25 #112	ARST
Success rate	48% #52	46% #107	ARST

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: ARK offense

	ARK off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	52.0 #13	24.0 #95	ARK
Yards / play	7.26 #20	5.28 #92	ARK
PPA / play	+0.50 #16	+0.19 #102	ARK
Success rate	51% #39	40% #81	ARK

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.