James Madison @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Fri, Sep 5, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Louisville

Weather at kickoff77°F5 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

James Madison

1-0 · Power #28

final

Final

Louisville

1-0 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -15.5

✓ JMU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 20–35 LOU

✓ LOU (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -14.5

CloseLOU -15.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -14.5

1 → LOU

CloseLOU -15.5

1 pt toward Louisville

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -14.5 · closed LOU -15.5 · moved 1 toward LOUmodel LOU -13.5

model LOU -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 47% (81 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (136 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -14.5

CloseLOU -15.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 15.5-point home favorite against JMU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 28–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 14.2; 53.9 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIZ vs BC 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	27–21	L	U52
Close	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Close	UCLA vs USA 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-15.5	32–31	L	O59
Loose	UTAH vs BAY 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-14.5	23–12	L	U54
Loose	KSU vs TROY 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-15	42–13	W	O50
Loose	OSU vs WISC 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & rest	-19	52–21	W	O56.5
Loose	KSU vs TULN 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-13.5	10–17	L	U49
Loose	SMU vs BYU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-12.5	15–18	L	U56
Loose	WASH vs BOIS 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-14.5	56–19	W	O59
Loose	MSST vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-9	31–24	L	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU W	1-0	100%	—	—
LOU L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: JMU away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU O	1-0	100%	1-0
LOU O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
LOU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU−2.2 →0.0▲ 2.2#68

LOU+11.2 →+10.1▼ 1.1#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

JMU

Longer bar = better

LOU

#41

Offense

LOU better ▶

#18

#19

Defense

Even

#24

+1.0 #44

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

−3.0 #130

71 plays #44

Pace

◀ JMU faster

67 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Even matchup

	JMU off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #26	17.0 #74	JMU
Yards / play	6.45 #43	2.83 #10	LOU
PPA / play	+0.29 #52	−0.40 #10	LOU
Success rate	51% #41	5% #1	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	51.0 #16	10.0 #44	LOU
Yards / play	8.09 #12	2.60 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #36	−0.39 #11	JMU
Success rate	64% #7	21% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.