UConn @ Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Syracuse

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

UConn

1-0 · Power #87

final

Final

Syracuse

0-1 · Power #92

▲ winner

Closing spread

SYR -7.5

✓ CONN W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 25–34 SYR

✓ SYR (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSYR -7.5

CloseSYR -7.5

Total59.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSYR -7.5

no move

CloseSYR -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open59.5

▼ 2

Close57.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SYR -7.5 · unchangedmodel SYR -12.5

model SYR -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 56% (126 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSYR -7.5

CloseSYR -7.5

Total59.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like SYR as a 7.5-point home favorite against CONN, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SYR won 27–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 5 similar games. 47 points stayed under 57.5, as in 1 of 5.

Favorite won

0 of 50%

Below normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

0 of 50%

Below normal · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 11.4 against an average line of 8.4; 65.8 points a game (usually 53.5). When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CMU vs USA 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar total & spread	-6	24–38	L	O57.5
Loose	APP vs JMU 2022 · Week 4 · loose	-6.25	28–32	L	O57
Loose	WVU vs KU 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest	-14	42–55	L	O59.75
Loose	FSU vs MEM 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & situation	-7	12–20	L	U54.5
Loose	HOU vs KU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-8.5	30–48	L	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN W	1-0	100%	—	—
SYR L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: CONN away, as underdog; SYR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN O	1-0	100%	1-0
SYR O	1-0	100%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 24. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
SYR	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CONN 0–1 SYR SYR leads · 1 game since 2023 · SYR has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	UConn 24 @ Syracuse 31	SYR -9.5	CONN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−4.2 →−3.8▲ 0.4#82

SYR+5.9 →+5.1▼ 0.8#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

CONN

Longer bar = better

SYR

#14

Offense

◀ CONN better

#76

#57

Defense

◀ CONN better

#127

0.0 #65

Turnovers

◀ CONN better

−1.0 #109

71 plays #42

Pace

SYR faster ▶

84 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	59.0 #8	45.0 #129	CONN
Yards / play	8.99 #6	7.25 #129	CONN
PPA / play	+0.59 #6	+0.43 #128	CONN
Success rate	53% #37	53% #120	CONN

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #72	13.0 #53	Even
Yards / play	4.49 #108	4.08 #43	CONN
PPA / play	+0.10 #81	0.00 #62	Even
Success rate	50% #42	38% #70	SYR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.