Liberty @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Jacksonville State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F4 mphgusts 25Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Liberty

1-0 · Power #104

final

Final

Jacksonville State

0-1 · Power #101

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -6.5

✓ JXST W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 28–24 JXST

✗ LIB (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -5.5

CloseLIB -6.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -5.5

1 → LIB

CloseLIB -6.5

1 pt toward Liberty

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -5.5 · closed LIB -6.5 · moved 1 toward LIBmodel JXST -3.5

model JXST -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 58% (114 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (137 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -5.5

CloseLIB -6.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 6.5-point road favorite at JXST, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 34–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.8 against an average line of 4.8; 50.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AFA @ SJSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	45–20	W	O45.5
Close	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	45–38	W	O52.5
Close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	42–14	W	O53
Close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest	-5.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Close	DUKE @ GT 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	20–23	L	U54
Close	JMU @ MRSH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-5	20–9	W	U49.25
Close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.75	17–24	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
JXST W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; JXST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB U	0-1	0%	1-0
JXST U	0-1	0%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 433 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
JXST	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LIB 1–1 JXST Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · JXST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 30 2024	Jacksonville State 31 @ Liberty 21	LIB -2.5	JXST W
Oct 10 2023	Liberty 31 @ Jacksonville State 13	LIB -7	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB−5.7 →−5.4▲ 0.3#94

JXST−5.1 →−5.0▲ 0.1#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

LIB

Longer bar = better

JXST

#71

Offense

◀ LIB better

#104

#44

Defense

◀ LIB better

#89

+2.0 #19

Turnovers

◀ LIB better

0.0 #58

73 plays #34

Pace

◀ LIB faster

69 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #63	17.0 #70	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #80	6.03 #109	LIB
PPA / play	+0.09 #83	+0.13 #95	Even
Success rate	46% #56	39% #80	LIB

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	JXST off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	10.0 #119	7.0 #25	LIB
Yards / play	4.67 #101	5.02 #86	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #102	−0.14 #38	LIB
Success rate	38% #94	30% #28	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.