Middle Tennessee @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Wisconsin

Weather at kickoff62°F11 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

0-1 · Power #128

final

Final

Wisconsin

1-0 · Power #63

▲ winner

Closing spread

WIS -28.5

✓ WIS W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 8–37 WIS

✓ WIS (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWIS -28.5

CloseWIS -28.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWIS -28.5

no move

CloseWIS -28.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WIS -28.5 · unchangedmodel WIS -33.5

model WIS -33.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 60% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWIS -28.5

CloseWIS -28.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like WIS as a 28.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: WIS won 42–10; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 5 similar games. 52 points went over 44.5, as in 2 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 57%

Went over

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 55%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 27.6 against an average line of 26.4; 48 points a game (usually 56). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & situation	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Loose	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Loose	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & situation	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Loose	JMU vs USM 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-24	32–15	L	U54
Loose	TOL vs MASS 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-28	55–10	W	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU L	0-1	0%	—	—
WIS L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; WIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU U	0-1	0%	0-1
WIS U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 293 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
WIS	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−18.0 →−20.0▼ 2.0#132

WIS+5.3 →+8.0▲ 2.7#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

MTSU

Longer bar = better

WIS

#126

Offense

WIS better ▶

#81

#92

Defense

WIS better ▶

#13

0.0 #93

Turnovers

WIS better ▶

+1.0 #41

59 plays #108

Pace

WIS faster ▶

75 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	MTSU off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #110	0.0 #5	WIS
Yards / play	2.59 #136	2.92 #9	WIS
PPA / play	−0.32 #132	−0.35 #12	WIS
Success rate	29% #127	28% #26	WIS

When WIS has the ball

Even matchup

	WIS off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #94	34.0 #118	WIS
Yards / play	4.71 #99	4.64 #63	MTSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #76	+0.18 #101	WIS
Success rate	48% #53	41% #85	WIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.