Iowa @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Iowa State

Weather at kickoff58°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Iowa

1-0 · Power #20

final

Final

Iowa State

2-0 · Power #36

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -3.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 21–25 ISU

✓ ISU (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -3.5

CloseISU -3.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -3.5

no move

CloseISU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -3.5 · unchangedmodel ISU -3

model ISU -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (212 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -3.5

CloseISU -3.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 3.5-point home favorite against IOWA, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 16–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 43.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 3.6; 48.8 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BC vs MSU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	23–19	L	U45.5
Very close	ISU vs BAY 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–31	L	O45
Close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Close	RUTG vs WASH 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-1.25	21–18	W	U45
Close	UK vs FLA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	33–14	W	O45
Close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Close	ORST vs UTAH 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-3.5	21–7	W	U44.5
Close	IOWA vs ISU 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	19–20	L	O36
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	MSST vs TA&M 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	42–24	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA L	0-1	0%	—	—
ISU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: IOWA away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA U	0-1	0%	1-0
ISU UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 55% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
ISU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

IOWA 1–1 ISU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · ISU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	Iowa State 20 @ Iowa 19	IOWA -2.5	ISU W
Sep 9 2023	Iowa 20 @ Iowa State 13	IOWA -3.5	IOWA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+7.8 →+7.7▼ 0.1#36

ISU+7.6 →+7.9▲ 0.3#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

IOWA

Longer bar = better

ISU

#49

Offense

Even

#51

#32

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#67

−1.0 #104

Turnovers

ISU better ▶

+1.0 #39

69 plays #57

Pace

Even

71 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #49	14.0 #59	Even
Yards / play	5.19 #81	5.48 #94	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #45	0.00 #63	Even
Success rate	57% #21	34% #50	IOWA

When ISU has the ball

Even matchup

	ISU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #37	7.0 #24	Even
Yards / play	5.97 #60	3.77 #28	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.33 #42	+0.01 #65	ISU
Success rate	44% #66	23% #12	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.