Bowling Green @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Cincinnati

Weather at kickoff72°F10 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Bowling Green

1-0 · Power #120

final

Final

Cincinnati

0-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -21.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 14–33 CIN

✓ CIN (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -20.5

CloseCIN -21.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -20.5

1 → CIN

CloseCIN -21.5

1 pt toward Cincinnati

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -20.5 · closed CIN -21.5 · moved 1 toward CINmodel CIN -12

model CIN -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 43% (60 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (139 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -20.5

CloseCIN -21.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 21.5-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 34–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.3 against an average line of 20; 45.1 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CAL vs SDSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-18.5	31–10	W	U48.5
Close	UK vs OHIO 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total	-21.5	41–6	W	O42
Close	NEB vs LT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-20.5	28–14	L	U45
Close	FRES vs NMSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation	-20	48–0	W	U48.5
Close	MINN vs EMU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-19.5	25–6	L	U48
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	BYU vs WYO 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-21.25	38–24	L	O49.75
Loose	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & rest	-16.5	17–14	L	U47
Loose	AUB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & rest	-25	10–31	L	U48.5
Loose	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & rest	-19	40–10	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU L	0-1	0%	—	—
CIN W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU U	0-1	0%	1-0
CIN U	0-1	0%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 342 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
CIN	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BGSU 4–1 CIN BGSU leads · 5 games since 1990 · CIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−4.2 →−4.9▼ 0.7#88

CIN+3.5 →+3.6▲ 0.1#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

BGSU

Longer bar = better

CIN

#95

Offense

CIN better ▶

#69

#18

Defense

◀ BGSU better

#87

0.0 #72

Turnovers

◀ BGSU better

−2.0 #119

61 plays #95

Pace

◀ BGSU faster

55 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #71	20.0 #85	Even
Yards / play	4.36 #112	4.53 #59	CIN
PPA / play	−0.03 #109	+0.12 #88	CIN
Success rate	39% #87	49% #114	BGSU

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	CIN off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #95	7.0 #26	BGSU
Yards / play	4.93 #93	3.00 #13	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.19 #60	−0.21 #22	BGSU
Success rate	55% #28	23% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.