Central Michigan @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Pittsburgh

Weather at kickoff66°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

1-0 · Power #103

final

Final

Pittsburgh

1-0 · Power #35

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -21.5

✓ PITT W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 15–36 PITT

✓ PITT (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -21.5

ClosePITT -21.5

Total53.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -21.5

no move

ClosePITT -21.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▼ 5

Close48.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -21.5 · unchangedmodel PITT -19.5

model PITT -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 42% (59 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -21.5

ClosePITT -21.5

Total53.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like PITT as a 21.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 45–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 7 similar games. 62 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 7.

Favorite won

7 of 7100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 771%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 22.3 against an average line of 21.5; 61.7 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JMU vs TXST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-21.75	40–13	W	O51.5
Close	UCF vs SHSU 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-21.5	45–14	W	O54
Loose	AFA vs NEV 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24	48–20	W	O47
Loose	ILL vs CMU 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-21	30–9	P	U50
Loose	SC vs ODU 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & situation	-20.5	23–19	L	U49.5
Loose	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Loose	WASH vs CAL 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-20.5	59–32	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
PITT W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU U	0-1	0%	1-0
PITT O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 388 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
PITT	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−14.4 →−12.9▲ 1.5#122

PITT+2.5 →+2.7▲ 0.2#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

CMU

Longer bar = better

PITT

#79

Offense

PITT better ▶

#21

#74

Defense

PITT better ▶

#33

+3.0 #4

Turnovers

◀ CMU better

−1.0 #108

64 plays #82

Pace

Even

65 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	CMU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #101	9.0 #37	PITT
Yards / play	5.48 #76	3.59 #21	PITT
PPA / play	+0.13 #75	+0.03 #69	Even
Success rate	44% #65	14% #3	PITT

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	61.0 #7	14.0 #57	PITT
Yards / play	7.08 #29	5.55 #96	PITT
PPA / play	+0.50 #15	+0.03 #68	PITT
Success rate	53% #32	38% #76	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.