Central Michigan @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Fri, Aug 29, 2025, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at San José State

Weather at kickoff68°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

0-0 · Power #103

▲ winner

Final

San José State

0-0 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

SJSU -14.5

✓ CMU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 20–34 SJSU

✗ SJSU (85%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -11.5

CloseSJSU -14.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSJSU -11.5

3 → SJSU

CloseSJSU -14.5

3 pts toward San José State

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SJSU -11.5 · closed SJSU -14.5 · moved 3 toward SJSUmodel SJSU -13.5

model SJSU -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 54% (82 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (131 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -11.5

CloseSJSU -14.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 14.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CMU won 16–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.4 against an average line of 14.7; 51.8 points a game (usually 54). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SJSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-13	24–14	L	U53
Very close	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Very close	TOL vs BALL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-13.5	28–21	L	U53.5
Very close	VT vs ODU 2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread	-16	36–17	W	O48
Very close	SHSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-15	31–11	W	U44.5
Very close	BGSU vs ODU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-11	27–30	L	O51.5
Very close	UTEP vs NMSU 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread	-17	20–13	L	U46.5
Close	CONN vs TEM 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-17.5	29–20	L	P49
Close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & team ratings	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Close	TOL vs CMU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & total	-15	37–10	W	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found