Fresno State @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2025)

Sat, Aug 23, 2025, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Kansas

Weather at kickoff82°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

0-0 · Power #82

final

Final

Kansas

0-0 · Power #54

▲ winner

Closing spread

KU -14.5

✓ KU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 19–34 KU

✓ KU (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -12.5

CloseKU -14.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKU -12.5

2 → KU

CloseKU -14.5

2 pts toward Kansas

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KU -12.5 · closed KU -14.5 · moved 2 toward KUmodel KU -16.5

model KU -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 55% (78 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -12.5

CloseKU -14.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 14.5-point home favorite against FRES, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 31–7; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.2 against an average line of 14.5; 53.2 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MD vs UVA 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-16.25	42–14	W	O48.25
Very close	APP vs TROY 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-14	32–28	L	O52
Very close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Very close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-14	44–17	W	O50
Very close	ILL vs FAU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-16	23–17	L	U45.5
Very close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-15	24–21	L	U53.5
Very close	SYR vs ARMY 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-13	29–16	P	U50.5
Very close	MD vs NU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-14.25	31–24	L	O51
Very close	CAL vs ASU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-12.5	24–21	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found