Kansas @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Missouri

Weather at kickoff72°F12 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas

2-0 · Power #54

final

Final

Missouri

1-0 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -6.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 22–29 MIZ

✓ MIZ (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -6.5

CloseMIZ -6.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -6.5

no move

CloseMIZ -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -6.5 · unchangedmodel MIZ -8

model MIZ -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (155 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -6.5

CloseMIZ -6.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 6.5-point home favorite against KU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 42–31; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 7.1; 52.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs TEX 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	24–34	L	O53.5
Close	MINN vs PUR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-9	10–20	L	U53
Close	LOU vs GT 2024 · Week 4 · close	-8.5	31–19	W	U56
Loose	IU vs MD 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-7.5	42–28	W	O49.5
Loose	KSU vs MIZ 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	40–12	W	U52.5
Loose	ND vs LOU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6.5	31–24	W	O45
Loose	WASH vs MSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	39–28	W	O56.5
Loose	ND vs IU 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & total	-7	27–17	W	U50.5
Loose	MSST vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-9	31–24	L	U60
Loose	IU vs WASH 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread	-5.5	31–17	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU WL	1-1	50%	—	—
MIZ W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: KU away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU UU	0-2	0%	2-0
MIZ O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 411 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
MIZ	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+6.8 →+8.6▲ 1.8#30

MIZ+10.7 →+13.7▲ 3.0#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#19

Offense

Even

#10

#30

Defense

Even

#26

+0.5 #54

Turnovers

MIZ better ▶

+2.0 #15

68 plays #64

Pace

Even

69 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	38.5 #38	6.0 #17	MIZ
Yards / play	7.46 #18	3.66 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.54 #12	−0.17 #28	Even
Success rate	63% #8	32% #36	KU

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	61.0 #6	7.0 #22	Even
Yards / play	8.12 #11	3.39 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.53 #13	−0.01 #58	MIZ
Success rate	63% #9	27% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.