Miami (OH) @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 4:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Rutgers

Weather at kickoff73°F6 mphgusts 21Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami (OH)

0-1 · Power #91

final

Final

Rutgers

1-0 · Power #62

▲ winner

Closing spread

RUTG -15.5

✓ RUTG W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 17–32 RUTG

✓ RUTG (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -13.5

CloseRUTG -15.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenRUTG -13.5

2 → RUTG

CloseRUTG -15.5

2 pts toward Rutgers

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Close45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened RUTG -13.5 · closed RUTG -15.5 · moved 2 toward RUTGmodel RUTG -12.5

model RUTG -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 46% (83 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (147 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -13.5

CloseRUTG -15.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RUTG as a 15.5-point home favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: RUTG won 45–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.3 against an average line of 15.4; 45.7 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USA vs CMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-16	30–34	L	O47.5
Close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Close	CAL vs STAN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-15	24–21	L	U53.5
Close	PUR vs NU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-17.5	17–9	L	U44.5
Close	MD vs UVA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-16.25	42–14	W	O48.25
Close	CAL vs ASU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-12.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Close	ILL vs FAU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-16	23–17	L	U45.5
Close	WSU vs CSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-17	38–7	W	U52.25
Loose	ECU vs ODU 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-13	39–21	W	O49.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
RUTG L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: M-OH away, as underdog; RUTG home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH U	0-1	0%	0-1
RUTG O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 317 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
RUTG	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−2.8 →−5.3▼ 2.5#91

RUTG+3.4 →+3.6▲ 0.2#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

M-OH

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#133

Offense

RUTG better ▶

#45

#86

Defense

◀ M-OH better

#107

−1.0 #102

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #96

40 plays #136

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

60 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: RUTG defense

	M-OH off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	0.0 #134	31.0 #112	RUTG
Yards / play	2.92 #135	7.10 #127	Even
PPA / play	−0.35 #133	+0.24 #109	RUTG
Success rate	28% #128	39% #79	RUTG

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: RUTG offense

	RUTG off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #54	17.0 #74	Even
Yards / play	6.65 #40	4.71 #69	RUTG
PPA / play	+0.33 #41	+0.12 #90	RUTG
Success rate	50% #44	48% #110	RUTG

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.