UNLV @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Miami (OH)

Weather at kickoff76°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

UNLV

3-0 · Power #74

▲ winner

Final

Miami (OH)

0-2 · Power #91

final

Closing spread

UNLV -1.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 27–25 M-OH

✓ UNLV (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -3.5

CloseUNLV -1.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -3.5

2 → M-OH

CloseUNLV -1.5

2 pts toward Miami (OH)

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -3.5 · closed UNLV -1.5 · moved 2 toward M-OHmodel UNLV -3

model UNLV -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (115 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (73 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -3.5

CloseUNLV -1.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 1.5-point road favorite at M-OH, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 41–38; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 2.9; 52.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN @ M-OH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-3	27–16	W	U47.5
Close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Close	USU @ CONN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-4.5	34–33	L	O51
Close	USU @ SDSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-2.25	32–24	W	U56.5
Loose	UNC @ FSU 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar total	-2.5	35–11	W	U50.5
Loose	LIB @ BUFF 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.75	55–27	W	O54
Loose	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Loose	RICE @ CLT 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread	-1	28–7	W	U46.5
Loose	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · loose	-4	24–38	L	O51.5
Loose	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & spread	-3	52–14	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
M-OH WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; M-OH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OUU	1-2	33%	3-0
M-OH UO	1-1	50%	0-2

Went over in Q3. Of 450 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
M-OH	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV+5.4 →−0.6▼ 6.0#71

M-OH−2.8 →−7.5▼ 4.7#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UNLV

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#33

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#118

#96

Defense

Even

#105

+1.7 #14

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−1.0 #114

59 plays #128

Pace

Even

43 plays #137

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #52	31.0 #114	UNLV
Yards / play	7.27 #19	5.09 #63	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.31 #27	+0.19 #110	UNLV
Success rate	50% #33	51% #132	UNLV

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	M-OH off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	8.5 #136	25.0 #88	UNLV
Yards / play	5.71 #77	6.00 #106	M-OH
PPA / play	−0.10 #134	+0.04 #66	UNLV
Success rate	35% #123	47% #122	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 119 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	8.0 #40	12.3 #31	20.3 #35	5.7 #64	9.3 #29	15.0 #47
M-OH allowed	5.0	8.5	13.5	7.0	10.5	17.5

M-OH scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	3.5	1.5	5.0	3.5	0.0	3.5
UNLV allowed	5.7 #73	3.3 #17	9.0 #47	5.7 #78	10.3 #111	16.0 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.