Northern Illinois @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Mississippi State

Weather at kickoff90°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

1-1 · Power #124

final

Final

Mississippi State

3-0 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

MSST -24.5

✓ MSST W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 13–36 MSST

✓ MSST (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSST -22.5

CloseMSST -24.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSST -22.5

2 → MSST

CloseMSST -24.5

2 pts toward Mississippi State

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSST -22.5 · closed MSST -24.5 · moved 2 toward MSSTmodel MSST -15

model MSST -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–25.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 52% (64 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (165 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSST -22.5

CloseMSST -24.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSST as a 24.5-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: MSST won 38–10; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 48.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 44%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 52%

Covers above normal, overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 28.7 against an average line of 22.6; 62.1 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JMU vs TXST 2022 · Week 5 · close	-21.75	40–13	W	O51.5
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	AFA vs NEV 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form	-24	48–20	W	O47
Close	FSU vs GT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-23.5	41–16	W	O48
Loose	ND vs PITT 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & season form	-21	58–7	W	O45.5
Loose	MIZ vs UL 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & situation	-27.5	52–10	W	O47.5
Loose	AUB vs SJSU 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-24	24–16	L	U48.5
Loose	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & total	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Loose	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar total	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Loose	TOL vs EMU 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar total	-19.5	49–23	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0
MSST WW–	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; MSST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UU	0-2	0%	1-1
MSST UUO	1-2	33%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MSST	4-6 40%	7-2 78%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−5.3 →−6.5▼ 1.2#88

MSST+0.7 →+4.8▲ 4.1#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

NIU

Longer bar = better

MSST

#130

Offense

MSST better ▶

#31

#38

Defense

Even

#30

+0.5 #52

Turnovers

MSST better ▶

+1.3 #26

71 plays #34

Pace

◀ NIU faster

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: MSST defense

	NIU off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #128	12.3 #25	MSST
Yards / play	3.93 #134	4.06 #20	MSST
PPA / play	−0.01 #123	−0.09 #21	MSST
Success rate	32% #135	38% #53	MSST

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	40.3 #29	18.5 #51	MSST
Yards / play	6.82 #30	4.68 #45	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #31	−0.15 #13	Even
Success rate	50% #35	36% #41	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 127 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	1.5	3.0	4.5	3.0	6.5	9.5
MSST allowed	1.0 #12	3.3 #21	4.3 #12	2.3 #23	5.7 #61	8.0 #34

MSST scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	16.0 #5	8.0 #76	24.0 #19	9.3 #26	7.0 #61	16.3 #41
NIU allowed	1.5	5.0	6.5	1.5	10.5	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.