Tennessee @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee

3-1 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

4-0 · Power #56

final

Closing spread

TENN -7.5

✓ MSST W

Total

63.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 34–27 MSST

✓ TENN (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -9.5

CloseTENN -7.5

Total61.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -9.5

2 → MSST

CloseTENN -7.5

2 pts toward Mississippi State

Total

Open61.5

▲ 2

Close63.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -9.5 · closed TENN -7.5 · moved 2 toward MSSTmodel TENN -7

model TENN -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 54% (112 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (150 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -9.5

CloseTENN -7.5

Total61.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 7.5-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 41–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 63.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 4.8 against an average line of 5.3; 63.2 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OU @ TCU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5	24–55	L	O69.5
Close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	20–33	L	U54
Close	USC @ ORST 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	17–14	L	U70.25
Close	UTAH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	32–42	L	O64.5
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Close	OU @ OKST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	24–27	L	U62.5
Close	LSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	49–39	W	O63.5
Close	WASH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	32–40	L	O65
Close	CLEM @ WAKE 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	51–45	L	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN WWWL	3-1	75%	—	2-1
MSST WW–W	3-0	100%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: TENN away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1
MSST UUOU	1-3	25%	4-0

Went over in Q4. Of 138 earlier overs in games with totals 59.5–67.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%
MSST	5-5 50%	7-2 78%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TENN 1–0 MSST TENN leads · 1 game since 2023 · TENN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Mississippi State 14 @ Tennessee 33	TENN -26.5	MSST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+17.7 →+16.9▼ 0.8#13

MSST+0.7 →+7.6▲ 6.9#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TENN

Longer bar = better

MSST

Offense

◀ TENN better

#26

#74

Defense

MSST better ▶

#22

0.0 #68

Turnovers

MSST better ▶

+1.3 #17

78 plays #9

Pace

◀ TENN faster

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	53.5 #3	11.8 #15	Even
Yards / play	7.13 #19	4.28 #26	Even
PPA / play	+0.42 #6	−0.09 #17	Even
Success rate	54% #9	36% #29	Even

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: MSST offense

	MSST off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	39.8 #27	27.8 #101	MSST
Yards / play	6.75 #30	4.95 #48	Even
PPA / play	+0.34 #19	+0.06 #66	MSST
Success rate	50% #27	41% #80	MSST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	20.8 #1	14.8 #17	35.5 #1	10.5 #9	6.8 #72	17.3 #32
MSST allowed	1.5 #15	4.3 #21	5.8 #17	1.8 #15	4.3 #34	6.0 #17

MSST scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	13.8 #4	7.8 #84	21.5 #27	9.5 #24	8.8 #40	18.3 #22
TENN allowed	1.8 #16	9.5 #108	11.3 #65	7.3 #114	7.8 #97	15.0 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.