LSU @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

LSU

4-0 · Power #31

final

Final

Ole Miss

4-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -3.5

✓ MISS W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

LSU 26–30 MISS

✓ MISS (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -1.5

CloseMISS -3.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLSU -1.5

5 → MISS

CloseMISS -3.5

5 pts toward Ole Miss

Total

Open56.5

▲ 2

Close58.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LSU -1.5 · closed MISS -3.5 · moved 5 toward MISSmodel MISS -7

model MISS -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (234 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (80 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -1.5

CloseMISS -3.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 3.5-point home favorite against LSU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 24–19; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.3 against an average line of 3.7; 55.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5
Close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Close	UNC vs MIA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	41–31	W	O57
Close	KSU vs OKST 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	48–0	W	U57.5
Close	COLO vs CIN 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	34–23	W	P57
Loose	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Loose	ND vs USC 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	48–20	W	O61
Loose	FLA vs UK 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	16–26	L	U52.75
Loose	UCF vs BYU 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	24–37	L	O53.5
Loose	ORST vs ORE 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	38–34	W	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU WLWL	2-2	50%	1-0	1-0
MISS WLWW	3-1	75%	3-0	3-1

Venue/role: LSU away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU UUUO	1-3	25%	4-0
MISS OOOU	3-1	75%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MISS	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LSU 1–1 MISS Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · LSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Ole Miss 26 @ LSU 29	MISS -3.5	LSU W
Sep 30 2023	LSU 49 @ Ole Miss 55	LSU -3	MISS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU+15.7 →+14.6▼ 1.1#17

MISS+19.8 →+18.4▼ 1.4#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

LSU

Longer bar = better

MISS

#78

Offense

MISS better ▶

#15

#20

Defense

◀ LSU better

#69

+0.5 #53

Turnovers

◀ LSU better

−0.5 #102

69 plays #48

Pace

MISS faster ▶

73 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Even matchup

	LSU off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #76	18.8 #41	MISS
Yards / play	5.70 #79	5.29 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #77	+0.15 #94	Even
Success rate	43% #79	41% #74	Even

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	44.8 #12	9.3 #10	Even
Yards / play	7.44 #14	4.21 #21	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #21	−0.13 #11	Even
Success rate	54% #11	37% #36	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	3.5 #109	11.8 #35	15.3 #78	7.0 #57	6.8 #75	13.8 #67
MISS allowed	3.5 #52	9.3 #106	12.8 #79	1.8 #14	4.3 #34	6.0 #18

MISS scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	6.0 #80	18.0 #3	24.0 #21	8.5 #38	12.3 #7	20.8 #11
LSU allowed	1.5 #15	3.5 #17	5.0 #12	1.8 #14	2.5 #15	4.3 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.