South Carolina @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 7 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

South Carolina

3-2 · Power #43

final

Final

LSU

4-1 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -8.5

✓ LSU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 19–28 LSU

✓ LSU (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -9.5

CloseLSU -8.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLSU -9.5

1 → SC

CloseLSU -8.5

1 pt toward South Carolina

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LSU -9.5 · closed LSU -8.5 · moved 1 toward SCmodel LSU -10.5

model LSU -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 51% (128 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (233 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -9.5

CloseLSU -8.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as an 8.5-point home favorite against SC, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 20–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 8.3; 55.7 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USC vs NEB 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	28–20	W	U50.5
Close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Close	VT vs BC 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	42–21	W	O47.5
Close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Close	GT vs NCSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	30–29	L	O51
Close	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25
Close	SC vs MIZ 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-10.5	34–30	L	O42.5
Close	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	TCU vs ISU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	62–14	W	O45.75
Close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & spread	-7	34–17	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC WLLWW	3-2	60%	1-0	1-0
LSU WLWLL	2-3	40%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: SC away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC UUUOO	2-3	40%	3-2
LSU UUUOU	1-4	20%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SC	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
LSU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SC 0–1 LSU LSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · LSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	LSU 36 @ South Carolina 33	LSU -6.5	SC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC+13.9 →+8.0▼ 5.9#35

LSU+15.7 →+15.0▼ 0.7#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

LSU

#102

Offense

LSU better ▶

#84

#40

Defense

LSU better ▶

#20

+1.0 #20

Turnovers

◀ SC better

+0.6 #44

58 plays #134

Pace

LSU faster ▶

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Advantage: LSU defense

	SC off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #91	12.2 #8	LSU
Yards / play	5.36 #96	4.61 #25	LSU
PPA / play	+0.11 #90	−0.04 #21	LSU
Success rate	37% #130	37% #25	LSU

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: SC defense

	LSU off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #82	18.8 #34	SC
Yards / play	5.50 #86	4.87 #33	SC
PPA / play	+0.11 #88	−0.02 #25	SC
Success rate	42% #81	41% #67	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SC scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	4.2 #105	11.0 #36	15.2 #68	5.4 #84	4.2 #115	9.6 #112
LSU allowed	1.8 #11	5.6 #40	7.4 #17	1.4 #6	3.4 #17	4.8 #5

LSU scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	4.2 #105	9.4 #63	13.6 #85	6.8 #58	6.6 #74	13.4 #63
SC allowed	4.4 #58	5.0 #25	9.4 #35	3.2 #29	6.2 #68	9.4 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.