Florida @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Weather at kickoff88°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Florida

2-3 · Power #37

final

Final

Texas A&M

5-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -6.5

✓ TA&M W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 21–28 TA&M

✓ TA&M (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -8.5

CloseTA&M -6.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -8.5

2 → FLA

CloseTA&M -6.5

2 pts toward Florida

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -8.5 · closed TA&M -6.5 · moved 2 toward FLAmodel TA&M -9

model TA&M -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 57% (190 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 59% (61 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -8.5

CloseTA&M -6.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 6.5-point home favorite against FLA, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 34–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.2 against an average line of 6.3; 47 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	34–17	W	U52.5
Very close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	31–16	W	U52
Very close	LSU vs OU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	37–17	W	O48
Very close	TA&M vs AUB 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	16–10	L	U51.5
Close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Close	IOWA vs NEB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & rest	-3	13–10	P	U41.5
Close	ALA vs TENN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	34–20	W	O47.5
Close	USC vs NEB 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	28–20	W	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA WLLLW	2-3	40%	0-2	1-2
TA&M LLWLW	2-3	40%	1-3	1-3

Venue/role: FLA away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA UUUUO	1-4	20%	2-3
TA&M OOOUU	3-2	60%	5-0

Went over in Q4. Of 484 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
TA&M	6-4 60%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FLA 0–1 TA&M TA&M leads · 1 game since 2023 · TA&M has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Texas A&M 33 @ Florida 20	TA&M -3.5	TA&M W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+13.1 →+13.4▲ 0.3#20

TA&M+14.3 →+18.5▲ 4.2#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

FLA

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#93

Offense

TA&M better ▶

#36

#32

Defense

Even

#32

−0.4 #98

Turnovers

TA&M better ▶

0.0 #75

66 plays #72

Pace

TA&M faster ▶

71 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	FLA off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #98	21.0 #51	TA&M
Yards / play	5.33 #97	4.64 #26	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.07 #100	+0.01 #37	TA&M
Success rate	43% #75	34% #12	TA&M

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #42	17.0 #25	Even
Yards / play	6.61 #28	5.03 #42	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #34	+0.03 #40	Even
Success rate	47% #39	36% #20	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	6.0 #69	9.2 #69	15.2 #67	5.4 #86	2.8 #130	8.2 #123
TA&M allowed	5.2 #80	4.0 #15	9.2 #35	4.4 #55	7.4 #86	11.8 #76

TA&M scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	6.2 #66	13.6 #13	19.8 #26	6.2 #64	8.8 #37	15.0 #44
FLA allowed	1.4 #8	6.4 #55	7.8 #23	4.6 #60	4.6 #33	9.2 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.