Oklahoma vs Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · Neutral site · Conference game

Weather at kickoff90°F3 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma

5-0 · Power #16

final

Final

Texas

3-2 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -2.5

✓ TEX W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

OU 21–24 TEX

✓ TEX (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -2.5

CloseTEX -2.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -2.5

no move

CloseTEX -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -2.5 · unchangedmodel TEX -3.5

model TEX -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 45%, covered 42% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -2.5

CloseTEX -2.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against OU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 23–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.6 against an average line of 3.6; 50.4 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORE vs PSU 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	45–37	W	O51.5
Close	PSU vs ND 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	24–27	L	O45.5
Close	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	19–22	L	U51
Close	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-2	27–20	W	O46
Loose	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Loose	MIZ vs IOWA 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar total & spread	-1.5	27–24	W	O41
Loose	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5
Loose	TA&M vs ARK 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	21–17	L	U50.5
Loose	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-4	3–14	L	U51
Loose	MIZ vs MEM 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form & rest	-6.5	34–27	W	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OU LWWWL	3-2	60%	—	—
TEX LLLWL	1-4	20%	—	1-3

Venue/role: OU neutral, as underdog; TEX neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU UUUUU	0-5	0%	5-0
TEX UUUOO	2-3	40%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 56% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
TEX	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

OU 52–62 TEX (5 tied) TEX leads · 119 games since 1902 · OU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Texas 34 @ Oklahoma 3	TEX -16.5	TEX W
Oct 7 2023	Oklahoma 34 @ Texas 30	TEX -5	OU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+11.4 →+15.4▲ 4.0#17

TEX+23.2 →+18.6▼ 4.6#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

TEX

#44

Offense

◀ OU better

#73

Defense

Even

#13

−0.8 #119

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+0.6 #42

70 plays #28

Pace

◀ OU faster

68 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	OU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #46	12.0 #5	TEX
Yards / play	5.90 #64	4.34 #17	TEX
PPA / play	+0.21 #40	−0.12 #7	TEX
Success rate	49% #24	36% #21	Even

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	TEX off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #62	7.2 #2	OU
Yards / play	6.16 #48	3.50 #1	OU
PPA / play	+0.07 #103	−0.11 #9	OU
Success rate	43% #78	26% #1	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OU scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	7.6 #42	11.6 #31	19.2 #34	9.0 #24	5.6 #90	14.6 #50
TEX allowed	2.0 #15	5.2 #34	7.2 #15	2.0 #9	2.8 #12	4.8 #5

TEX scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	7.0 #53	9.0 #68	16.0 #60	8.0 #40	5.6 #90	13.6 #63
OU allowed	0.6 #2	2.0 #4	2.6 #3	3.2 #29	1.4 #1	4.6 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.