Texas @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F8 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Texas

4-2 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Kentucky

2-3 · Power #52

final

Closing spread

TEX -13.5

✓ UK W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 29–15 UK

✓ TEX (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -12.5

CloseTEX -13.5

Total43.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -12.5

1 → TEX

CloseTEX -13.5

1 pt toward Texas

Total

Open43.5

▲ 2

Close45.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -12.5 · closed TEX -13.5 · moved 1 toward TEXmodel TEX -13.5 matches the line

model TEX -13.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 48% (71 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (205 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -12.5

CloseTEX -13.5

Total43.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 13.5-point road favorite at UK, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 16–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 12.4; 50.6 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM @ NCSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	17–24	L	U44.5
Very close	ORE @ MICH 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-14.5	38–17	W	O45.5
Close	ALA @ OU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	3–24	L	U46.5
Close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Close	PSU @ MINN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	26–25	L	O45
Close	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Close	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-10	45–20	W	O50.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX LLWLW	2-4	33%	0-2	2-3
UK LWLLL	1-4	20%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: TEX away, as favorite; UK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX UUOOU	2-4	33%	4-2
UK UOOOU	3-2	60%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
UK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TEX 1–0 UK TEX leads · 1 game since 2023 · TEX has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Kentucky 14 @ Texas 31	TEX -18.5	UK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+23.2 →+18.9▼ 4.3#11

UK+5.2 →+3.6▼ 1.6#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TEX

Longer bar = better

#78

Offense

◀ TEX better

#105

Defense

◀ TEX better

#83

+1.0 #11

Turnovers

◀ TEX better

−0.4 #99

67 plays #61

Pace

◀ TEX faster

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #72	27.8 #96	TEX
Yards / play	5.97 #54	5.78 #98	TEX
PPA / play	+0.08 #96	+0.07 #58	UK
Success rate	41% #89	42% #80	Even

When UK has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	UK off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #93	11.0 #3	TEX
Yards / play	5.07 #113	4.22 #10	TEX
PPA / play	+0.02 #119	−0.15 #3	TEX
Success rate	41% #93	36% #17	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	5.8 #75	8.0 #82	13.8 #84	8.3 #31	6.3 #76	14.7 #47
UK allowed	4.8 #63	12.0 #129	16.8 #117	4.8 #60	6.2 #58	11.0 #56

UK scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	7.6 #43	6.0 #109	13.6 #88	4.0 #107	6.8 #72	10.8 #97
TEX allowed	2.2 #13	4.8 #19	7.0 #10	1.7 #6	2.3 #4	4.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.