Texas @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F10 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Texas

5-2 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

4-3 · Power #56

final

Closing spread

TEX -8.5

✓ MSST W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 29–20 MSST

✓ TEX (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -6.5

CloseTEX -8.5

Total45.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -6.5

2 → TEX

CloseTEX -8.5

2 pts toward Texas

Total

Open45.5

▲ 4

Close49.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -6.5 · closed TEX -8.5 · moved 2 toward TEXmodel TEX -9

model TEX -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 52% (89 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 58% (67 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -6.5

CloseTEX -8.5

Total45.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as an 8.5-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 45–38; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 83 points went over 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 8.1; 56.2 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WISC @ MSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	28–34	L	O49.5
Close	KSU @ KU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–27	L	U59.5
Close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Close	KSU @ BYU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	9–38	L	U49.5
Close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25
Close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	31–27	L	O54
Close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Close	NEB @ MINN 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	6–24	L	U47.5
Close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX LWLWL	2-5	29%	0-3	2-4
MSST –WWLW	5-1	83%	3-0	3-1

Venue/role: TEX away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX UOOUU	2-5	29%	5-2
MSST OUOUU	2-5	29%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 538 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
MSST	4-6 40%	7-2 78%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TEX 1–0 MSST TEX leads · 1 game since 2023 · TEX has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Mississippi State 13 @ Texas 35	TEX -38.5	MSST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+23.2 →+17.0▼ 6.2#11

MSST+0.7 →+6.7▲ 6.0#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TEX

Longer bar = better

MSST

#95

Offense

MSST better ▶

#48

#10

Defense

◀ TEX better

#58

+1.0 #11

Turnovers

◀ TEX better

+0.7 #26

65 plays #91

Pace

MSST faster ▶

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: MSST defense

	TEX off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #80	20.3 #40	MSST
Yards / play	5.64 #77	5.29 #53	MSST
PPA / play	+0.05 #111	+0.07 #54	MSST
Success rate	39% #112	43% #86	MSST

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	MSST off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	31.9 #50	11.3 #3	TEX
Yards / play	5.92 #54	4.29 #10	TEX
PPA / play	+0.17 #49	−0.10 #5	TEX
Success rate	46% #38	37% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	5.0 #88	7.9 #82	12.9 #93	7.6 #38	5.9 #87	13.4 #61
MSST allowed	2.7 #23	5.9 #39	8.6 #23	2.4 #12	8.3 #116	10.7 #52

MSST scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	10.3 #9	5.9 #110	16.1 #56	6.4 #63	9.3 #25	15.7 #39
TEX allowed	1.9 #7	4.1 #12	6.0 #9	1.9 #9	3.4 #12	5.3 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.