Nebraska @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Fri, Oct 17, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Nebraska

5-1 · Power #45

final

Final

Minnesota

4-2 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEB -6.5

✓ MINN W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

NEB 26–19 MINN

✗ NEB (69%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -5.5

CloseNEB -6.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -5.5

1 → NEB

CloseNEB -6.5

1 pt toward Nebraska

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -5.5 · closed NEB -6.5 · moved 1 toward NEBmodel NEB -8.5

model NEB -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (140 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (200 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -5.5

CloseNEB -6.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 6.5-point road favorite at MINN, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 24–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 6.8; 50.5 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU @ ISU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	14–27	L	U52.5
Very close	LOU @ UK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	41–14	W	O49.5
Very close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Very close	WISC @ MSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	28–34	L	O49.5
Very close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	31–27	L	O54
Very close	UNC @ PITT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	41–24	W	O49.5
Very close	ISU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	31–28	L	O42.5
Very close	IOWA @ UCLA 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	17–20	L	U45
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Very close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	6–20	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB WWLLL	2-4	33%	0-1	2-3
MINN –LLLL	0-5	0%	0-3	0-1

Venue/role: NEB away, as favorite; MINN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB OOOOO	5-1	83%	5-1
MINN OOOOU	4-2	67%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MINN	6-4 60%	3-6 33%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NEB 0–1 MINN MINN leads · 1 game since 2023 · MINN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 31 2023	Nebraska 10 @ Minnesota 13	MINN -6.5	NEB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+8.3 →+11.5▲ 3.2#26

MINN+8.6 →+1.4▼ 7.2#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NEB

Longer bar = better

MINN

#29

Offense

◀ NEB better

#85

#26

Defense

◀ NEB better

#64

+0.5 #42

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+0.8 #20

67 plays #57

Pace

◀ NEB faster

64 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: NEB offense

	NEB off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #11	21.2 #50	NEB
Yards / play	6.68 #24	5.14 #46	NEB
PPA / play	+0.15 #62	+0.11 #75	Even
Success rate	50% #17	43% #85	NEB

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	MINN off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #77	18.7 #30	NEB
Yards / play	5.33 #97	4.46 #16	NEB
PPA / play	+0.10 #91	−0.01 #27	NEB
Success rate	43% #73	38% #31	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	7.8 #41	15.3 #2	23.2 #9	7.0 #51	10.8 #11	17.8 #20
MINN allowed	4.7 #61	7.3 #73	12.0 #68	4.0 #45	5.2 #41	9.2 #33

MINN scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	6.3 #67	11.3 #33	17.7 #45	4.5 #95	5.2 #98	9.7 #109
NEB allowed	2.2 #12	5.2 #29	7.3 #14	8.7 #126	2.7 #7	11.3 #63

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.