Ohio State @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Ohio State

6-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Wisconsin

2-4 · Power #63

final

Closing spread

OSU -24.5

✓ OSU W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 34–9 WIS

✓ OSU (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -26.5

CloseOSU -24.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -26.5

2 → WIS

CloseOSU -24.5

2 pts toward Wisconsin

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -26.5 · closed OSU -24.5 · moved 2 toward WISmodel OSU -25

model OSU -25

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (167 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -26.5

CloseOSU -24.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 24.5-point road favorite at WIS, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 34–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.8 against an average line of 23.8; 46.2 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Close	OSU @ NU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-28.5	31–7	L	U44.5
Close	UGA @ UK 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-22	13–12	L	U45
Close	PSU @ UCLA 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	37–42	L	O48
Close	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5
Close	PSU @ NU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-27	41–13	W	O46
Close	FSU @ PITT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-21.5	24–7	L	U50
Loose	ORE @ ASU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-22	49–13	W	O53.5
Loose	DUKE @ CONN 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-22	41–7	W	O45
Loose	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21	31–3	W	U48.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU WLWWW	5-1	83%	2-0	5-1
WIS WLLWL	2-4	33%	1-3	1-2

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; WIS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU OUUOU	2-4	33%	6-0
WIS OOUUU	2-4	33%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	10-0 100%	9-1 90%	5-5 50%
WIS	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OSU 1–0 WIS OSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Ohio State 24 @ Wisconsin 10	OSU -14.5	WIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+26.4 →+25.9▼ 0.5#1

WIS+5.3 →+0.4▼ 4.9#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

OSU

Longer bar = better

WIS

#18

Offense

◀ OSU better

#123

Defense

◀ OSU better

#92

+0.7 #38

Turnovers

◀ OSU better

−1.0 #128

61 plays #128

Pace

Even

63 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #23	22.7 #60	OSU
Yards / play	6.89 #19	5.73 #92	OSU
PPA / play	+0.29 #20	+0.16 #104	OSU
Success rate	52% #8	45% #113	OSU

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	WIS off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #132	6.8 #1	OSU
Yards / play	4.68 #130	3.90 #3	OSU
PPA / play	−0.02 #128	−0.18 #2	OSU
Success rate	40% #103	37% #25	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	6.8 #57	10.3 #40	17.2 #47	8.7 #25	11.0 #9	19.7 #10
WIS allowed	6.8 #103	7.2 #69	14.0 #86	4.7 #56	4.0 #26	8.7 #27

WIS scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	1.7 #132	2.3 #136	4.0 #136	5.2 #84	6.3 #74	11.5 #87
OSU allowed	0.5 #2	1.5 #1	2.0 #1	2.7 #17	2.2 #1	4.8 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.