Michigan State @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Indiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F13 mphgusts 27Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Michigan State

3-3 · Power #67

final

Final

Indiana

6-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -26.5

✓ MSU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 11–38 IU

✓ IU (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -26.5

CloseIU -26.5

Total54.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -26.5

no move

CloseIU -26.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▼ 5

Close49.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -26.5 · unchangedmodel IU -29.5

model IU -29.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–27.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 52% (65 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -26.5

CloseIU -26.5

Total54.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 26.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: IU won 38–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25.6 against an average line of 26.2; 46 points a game (usually 55). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Close	OSU vs OHIO 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-28.5	37–9	L	U49.5
Close	ALA vs TA&M 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-24	24–20	L	U48
Close	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Close	AUB vs SJSU 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest	-24	24–16	L	U48.5
Loose	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Loose	MIZ vs UL 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-27.5	52–10	W	O47.5
Loose	PSU vs MD 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-26	44–7	W	O50.5
Loose	OSU vs MINN 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-23.5	42–3	W	O42.5
Loose	BOIS vs SDSU 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24.5	56–24	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU LLWWL	2-4	33%	2-0	2-0
IU W–WLW	3-2	60%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU OOOOU	4-2	67%	3-3
IU OOOUU	3-3	50%	6-0

Went over in Q4. Of 520 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%
IU	8-2 80%	4-5 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MSU 1–1 IU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · IU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Indiana 47 @ Michigan State 10	IU -7.5	IU W
Nov 18 2023	Michigan State 24 @ Indiana 21	IU -3.5	MSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+0.3 →−2.2▼ 2.5#76

IU+13.4 →+22.6▲ 9.2#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MSU

Longer bar = better

#91

Offense

IU better ▶

#13

#112

Defense

IU better ▶

−0.5 #103

Turnovers

IU better ▶

+1.2 #6

63 plays #116

Pace

IU faster ▶

71 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	MSU off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #61	11.3 #4	IU
Yards / play	5.28 #100	4.20 #8	IU
PPA / play	+0.04 #110	−0.10 #8	IU
Success rate	41% #94	31% #5	IU

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	44.8 #4	31.8 #123	IU
Yards / play	7.10 #14	5.89 #104	IU
PPA / play	+0.26 #27	+0.17 #107	IU
Success rate	53% #7	45% #115	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	5.8 #73	6.8 #98	12.7 #92	9.0 #20	5.3 #96	14.3 #54
IU allowed	4.0 #48	3.2 #8	7.2 #11	1.0 #4	3.2 #10	4.2 #4

IU scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	12.2 #5	11.3 #32	23.5 #8	12.2 #3	9.2 #28	21.3 #4
MSU allowed	6.2 #92	9.3 #107	15.5 #104	6.3 #95	7.8 #101	14.2 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.