Oregon @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Oregon

5-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Rutgers

3-3 · Power #62

final

Closing spread

ORE -18.5

✓ ORE W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 40–22 RUTG

✓ ORE (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -15.5

CloseORE -18.5

Total59.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -15.5

3 → ORE

CloseORE -18.5

3 pts toward Oregon

Total

Open59.5

▲ 2

Close61.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -15.5 · closed ORE -18.5 · moved 3 toward OREmodel ORE -15

model ORE -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 16.5–20.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 40% (49 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (194 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -15.5

CloseORE -18.5

Total59.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as an 18.5-point road favorite at RUTG, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 56–10; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 61.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.1 against an average line of 18.4; 58.3 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CLEM @ WAKE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-21	49–14	W	P63
Close	ALA @ ARK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-17	49–26	W	O61
Close	MISS @ GT 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-17	42–0	W	U62.75
Close	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5
Close	MISS @ FLA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-13	17–24	L	U57.5
Close	OSU @ ILL 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-15	34–16	W	U51.5
Close	UTAH @ ASU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.75	34–13	W	U54
Close	TENN @ SC 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-22.5	38–63	L	O67
Close	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-21	41–16	W	O53
Close	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE WLLWL	3-3	50%	1-1	2-3
RUTG WWLWL	3-3	50%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; RUTG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE OUUOU	3-3	50%	5-1
RUTG OOOOU	5-1	83%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 228 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
RUTG	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+21.3 →+21.5▲ 0.2#5

RUTG+3.4 →+3.9▲ 0.5#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ORE

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#12

Offense

◀ ORE better

#35

#22

Defense

◀ ORE better

#119

+0.7 #37

Turnovers

◀ ORE better

+0.2 #68

67 plays #64

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

74 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	42.2 #9	27.5 #93	ORE
Yards / play	6.95 #17	6.98 #136	ORE
PPA / play	+0.36 #7	+0.21 #119	ORE
Success rate	50% #14	48% #129	ORE

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #32	15.2 #13	Even
Yards / play	6.04 #51	4.29 #13	ORE
PPA / play	+0.23 #32	0.00 #30	Even
Success rate	48% #25	38% #33	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	9.7 #16	12.0 #23	21.7 #16	12.7 #2	5.7 #91	18.3 #15
RUTG allowed	4.7 #62	7.8 #87	12.5 #72	9.8 #128	5.2 #43	15.0 #118

RUTG scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	9.7 #16	13.0 #10	22.7 #10	5.5 #80	7.5 #60	13.0 #70
ORE allowed	2.8 #23	2.0 #3	4.8 #4	1.7 #5	7.5 #98	9.2 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.