Wisconsin @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F19 mphgusts 45Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Wisconsin

2-5 · Power #63

final

Final

Oregon

6-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -31.5

✓ WIS W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 6–38 ORE

✓ ORE (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -34.5

CloseORE -31.5

Total42.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -34.5

3 → WIS

CloseORE -31.5

3 pts toward Wisconsin

Total

Open42.5

▲ 3

Close45.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -34.5 · closed ORE -31.5 · moved 3 toward WISmodel ORE -32

model ORE -32

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 29.5–33.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 54% (71 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (181 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -34.5

CloseORE -31.5

Total42.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like ORE as a 31.5-point home favorite against WIS, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 21–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 8 similar games. 28 points stayed under 45.5, as in 3 of 8.

Favorite won

8 of 8100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 58%

Went over

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 27 against an average line of 29.7; 47.3 points a game (usually 57). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PSU vs IU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-31	33–24	L	O45
Close	OSU vs MINN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-27.5	37–3	W	U51.5
Loose	PSU vs UCLA 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-29.5	27–11	L	U47.5
Loose	ND vs FSU 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & total	-25.5	52–3	W	O44
Loose	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Loose	UGA vs AUB 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-27.5	42–10	W	O49.5
Loose	MICH vs PUR 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form	-32.5	41–13	L	P54
Loose	UGA vs GT 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-36.5	37–14	L	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LLWLL	2-5	29%	1-1	1-3
ORE LLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: WIS away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS OUUUU	2-5	29%	2-5
ORE UUOUO	4-3	57%	6-1

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
ORE	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WIS 3–5 ORE ORE leads · 8 games since 1977 · ORE has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Oregon 16 @ Wisconsin 13	ORE -13.5	WIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+5.3 →−1.2▼ 6.5#70

ORE+21.3 →+24.5▲ 3.2#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WIS

Longer bar = better

ORE

#130

Offense

ORE better ▶

#108

Defense

ORE better ▶

#14

−1.0 #127

Turnovers

ORE better ▶

+0.6 #34

60 plays #131

Pace

ORE faster ▶

66 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	WIS off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	13.3 #135	14.4 #8	ORE
Yards / play	4.51 #134	4.06 #5	ORE
PPA / play	−0.06 #131	−0.02 #22	ORE
Success rate	38% #121	37% #21	ORE

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	44.1 #3	24.3 #71	ORE
Yards / play	7.65 #3	5.95 #110	ORE
PPA / play	+0.42 #2	+0.21 #122	ORE
Success rate	51% #10	48% #130	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	1.4 #135	2.0 #136	3.4 #136	4.4 #102	5.4 #96	9.9 #109
ORE allowed	2.9 #23	1.7 #2	4.6 #2	1.4 #5	7.4 #88	8.9 #30

ORE scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	10.3 #9	14.3 #3	24.6 #5	12.9 #2	4.9 #105	17.7 #17
WIS allowed	8.3 #123	6.1 #45	14.4 #90	5.4 #77	4.4 #27	9.9 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.