Washington @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff38°F7 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Washington

6-2 · Power #15

final

Final

Wisconsin

2-6 · Power #63

▲ winner

Closing spread

WASH -10.5

✓ WIS W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 29–19 WIS

✗ WASH (77%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -11.5

CloseWASH -10.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWASH -11.5

1 → WIS

CloseWASH -10.5

1 pt toward Wisconsin

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WASH -11.5 · closed WASH -10.5 · moved 1 toward WISmodel WASH -10.5 matches the line

model WASH -10.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 51% (76 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (274 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -11.5

CloseWASH -10.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 10.5-point road favorite at WIS, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WIS won 13–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Below normal · usually 75%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 10.9; 51.5 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KSU @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-12.5	19–24	L	U45.5
Close	SMU @ ECU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-11.5	31–10	W	U49
Close	LOU @ PITT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-7	21–38	L	O45
Close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Close	WIS @ IU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	14–20	L	U45
Close	KSU @ OKST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	21–29	L	U54
Close	CLEM @ NCSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	17–24	L	U44.5
Close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Close	LOU @ VT 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	28–16	W	U52.5
Close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	23–38	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH LLWLW	4-4	50%	1-2	4-2
WIS LWLLW	3-5	38%	1-4	2-3

Venue/role: WASH away, as favorite; WIS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH UUUUO	4-4	50%	6-2
WIS UUUUU	2-6	25%	2-6

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASH	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
WIS	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+8.0 →+13.3▲ 5.3#20

WIS+5.3 →−0.2▼ 5.5#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

WASH

Longer bar = better

WIS

#14

Offense

◀ WASH better

#132

#60

Defense

◀ WASH better

#100

+0.5 #36

Turnovers

◀ WASH better

−1.0 #130

64 plays #103

Pace

◀ WASH faster

59 plays #136

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #23	23.9 #62	WASH
Yards / play	6.83 #16	5.85 #96	WASH
PPA / play	+0.30 #9	+0.19 #115	WASH
Success rate	52% #6	47% #125	WASH

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	WIS off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	12.5 #135	20.9 #36	WASH
Yards / play	4.45 #135	5.16 #42	WASH
PPA / play	−0.09 #133	+0.09 #66	WASH
Success rate	37% #123	44% #96	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	6.1 #66	9.0 #66	15.1 #67	8.6 #23	11.8 #2	20.4 #4
WIS allowed	7.3 #107	6.3 #45	13.5 #78	5.6 #74	4.8 #29	10.4 #47

WIS scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	1.3 #135	1.8 #136	3.0 #136	3.9 #120	5.6 #93	9.5 #114
WASH allowed	5.0 #57	6.4 #47	11.4 #49	6.0 #85	3.5 #10	9.5 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.