Purdue @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Washington · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Purdue

2-8 · Power #79

final

Final

Washington

6-3 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

WASH -14.5

✓ WASH W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 20–35 WASH

✓ WASH (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -15.5

CloseWASH -14.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWASH -15.5

1 → PUR

CloseWASH -14.5

1 pt toward Purdue

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WASH -15.5 · closed WASH -14.5 · moved 1 toward PURmodel WASH -19.5

model WASH -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 57% (124 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (287 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -15.5

CloseWASH -14.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 14.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WASH won 49–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 15.5; 48.9 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Very close	GT vs SYR 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	41–16	W	O52.5
Very close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Very close	UCLA vs ASU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14	7–17	L	U45.5
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	MD vs ILL 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	24–27	L	U52
Very close	LOU vs CAL 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-18.5	26–29	L	O49
Very close	USC vs RUTG 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.75	42–20	W	O56.25
Very close	MD vs NU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-14.25	31–24	L	O51
Very close	UNLV vs NEV 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	38–14	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR WLLWW	5-5	50%	2-2	4-3
WASH LWLWL	4-5	44%	3-2	4-3

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; WASH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR UUUUU	2-8	20%	2-8
WASH UUUOU	4-5	44%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 631 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
WASH	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PUR 2–9 WASH (1 tied) WASH leads · 12 games since 1961 · WASH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR−8.2 →−1.4▲ 6.8#69

WASH+8.0 →+12.2▲ 4.2#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

PUR

Longer bar = better

WASH

#82

Offense

WASH better ▶

#23

#114

Defense

WASH better ▶

#45

−1.0 #130

Turnovers

WASH better ▶

+0.2 #52

64 plays #102

Pace

Even

65 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	PUR off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #113	20.0 #27	WASH
Yards / play	5.56 #79	4.94 #26	WASH
PPA / play	+0.08 #87	+0.06 #53	WASH
Success rate	45% #49	42% #73	PUR

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #36	27.7 #91	WASH
Yards / play	6.46 #25	6.13 #115	WASH
PPA / play	+0.24 #22	+0.21 #125	WASH
Success rate	50% #7	47% #126	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	6.2 #61	6.0 #108	12.2 #96	3.7 #118	5.0 #109	8.7 #124
WASH allowed	4.4 #49	6.0 #35	10.4 #36	6.4 #98	3.1 #4	9.6 #34

WASH scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	5.4 #83	9.1 #60	14.6 #71	7.7 #31	10.4 #6	18.1 #13
PUR allowed	4.1 #42	12.3 #136	16.4 #112	6.0 #91	5.3 #43	11.3 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.