Minnesota @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Fri, Nov 14, 2025, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

6-3 · Power #69

final

Final

Oregon

8-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -26.5

✓ ORE W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 11–38 ORE

✓ ORE (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -21.5

CloseORE -26.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -21.5

5 → ORE

CloseORE -26.5

5 pts toward Oregon

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -21.5 · closed ORE -26.5 · moved 5 toward OREmodel ORE -29

model ORE -29

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–27.5 since 2023: won 99%, covered 51% (68 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (146 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -21.5

CloseORE -26.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 26.5-point home favorite against MINN, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 42–13; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 32.5 against an average line of 27.5; 47.7 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	IU vs UCLA 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-27.5	56–6	W	O53.5
Close	OSU vs MSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-32	38–3	W	U48.25
Close	PSU vs MD 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-26	44–7	W	O50.5
Close	MIZ vs UL 2025 · Week 3 · close	-27.5	52–10	W	O47.5
Loose	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Loose	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & season form	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Loose	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar total	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Loose	MIA vs SYR 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & total	-28.5	38–10	L	O46.5
Loose	PSU vs UCLA 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & total	-29.5	27–11	L	U47.5
Loose	TEX vs BYU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-20.5	35–6	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN LLWLL	1-7	13%	0-3	1-2
ORE WLWLL	4-5	44%	2-3	3-5

Venue/role: MINN away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN OUUOU	5-4	56%	6-3
ORE OUOUU	4-5	44%	8-1

Went over in Q3. Of 423 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	7-3 70%	2-7 22%	5-5 50%
ORE	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN+8.6 →+0.8▼ 7.8#64

ORE+21.3 →+23.7▲ 2.4#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MINN

Longer bar = better

ORE

#100

Offense

ORE better ▶

#62

Defense

ORE better ▶

#11

+0.2 #50

Turnovers

ORE better ▶

+0.7 #24

62 plays #127

Pace

ORE faster ▶

65 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	MINN off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #96	13.8 #7	ORE
Yards / play	5.09 #109	4.03 #3	ORE
PPA / play	+0.08 #93	−0.04 #16	ORE
Success rate	40% #101	37% #16	ORE

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #10	21.6 #41	ORE
Yards / play	7.28 #6	5.20 #50	ORE
PPA / play	+0.34 #4	+0.10 #73	ORE
Success rate	49% #15	42% #85	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	5.0 #89	8.7 #69	13.7 #79	4.1 #108	5.3 #99	9.4 #116
ORE allowed	2.2 #6	2.1 #1	4.3 #2	1.1 #1	7.6 #105	8.7 #21

ORE scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	8.2 #23	13.0 #6	21.2 #9	11.1 #3	4.9 #113	16.0 #28
MINN allowed	5.3 #65	6.8 #59	12.1 #64	3.8 #27	5.3 #45	9.1 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.