Iowa @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F3 mphgusts 9Wet0.2 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Iowa

6-3 · Power #20

final

Final

USC

7-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -6.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 22–30 USC

✓ USC (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -6.5

CloseUSC -6.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -6.5

no move

CloseUSC -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -6.5 · unchangedmodel USC -10.5

model USC -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (225 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -6.5

CloseUSC -6.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 6.5-point home favorite against IOWA, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 26–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.4 against an average line of 6.1; 59.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Very close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Very close	VAN vs AUB 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	45–38	W	O46.5
Very close	CLEM vs SC 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	14–17	L	U49
Very close	TCU vs ISU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	62–14	W	O45.75
Very close	TENN vs OU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	27–33	L	O55.5
Very close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Close	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25
Close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	31–16	W	U52
Close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-7	41–17	W	O48.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA WWLWW	7-2	78%	3-0	3-0
USC LWWLW	5-4	56%	4-1	4-4

Venue/role: IOWA away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UUOOU	4-5	44%	6-3
USC OUUUO	5-4	56%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
USC	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+7.8 →+12.8▲ 5.0#19

USC+14.0 →+18.8▲ 4.8#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

IOWA

Longer bar = better

USC

#74

Offense

USC better ▶

#13

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#66

+0.4 #30

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #39

62 plays #125

Pace

USC faster ▶

66 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #61	21.8 #44	Even
Yards / play	5.01 #115	5.54 #73	USC
PPA / play	+0.11 #69	+0.04 #43	USC
Success rate	44% #52	44% #103	IOWA

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	39.6 #7	13.7 #6	Even
Yards / play	7.61 #1	4.28 #7	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #2	−0.06 #13	Even
Success rate	53% #2	38% #26	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	8.6 #20	9.1 #59	17.7 #32	4.0 #113	7.9 #44	11.9 #83
USC allowed	4.9 #55	6.1 #40	11.0 #44	6.3 #99	4.4 #23	10.8 #48

USC scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	8.8 #18	11.0 #23	19.8 #17	9.8 #10	10.0 #10	19.8 #4
IOWA allowed	4.0 #40	5.3 #27	9.3 #25	1.4 #2	2.9 #4	4.3 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.