Maryland @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F13 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Maryland

4-5 · Power #72

final

Final

Illinois

6-3 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

ILL -15.5

✓ ILL W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 18–33 ILL

✓ ILL (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -14.5

CloseILL -15.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -14.5

1 → ILL

CloseILL -15.5

1 pt toward Illinois

Total

Open54.5

▼ 3

Close51.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -14.5 · closed ILL -15.5 · moved 1 toward ILLmodel ILL -12.5

model ILL -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 45% (106 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (244 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -14.5

CloseILL -15.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 15.5-point home favorite against MD, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 24–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.1 against an average line of 15.4; 54.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSST vs AUB 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.5	39–33	L	O50.5
Very close	TA&M vs SC 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-17	30–17	L	U51.5
Very close	SMU vs SYR 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	31–18	L	U56.5
Close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Close	GT vs SYR 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-17.5	41–16	W	O52.5
Close	TCU vs COLO 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-13.5	35–21	W	U57
Close	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-15.5	42–21	W	O55
Close	JMU vs CCU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-15.5	47–7	W	O53
Close	GT vs VT 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	35–20	W	U55.5
Close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-16	27–14	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD WWWLL	5-4	56%	2-1	4-2
ILL WWLLW	6-3	67%	4-1	5-0

Venue/role: MD away, as underdog; ILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD UOUOU	3-6	33%	4-5
ILL OOUOU	5-4	56%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
ILL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MD 0–1 ILL ILL leads · 1 game since 2023 · ILL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Illinois 27 @ Maryland 24	MD -13.5	ILL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+2.1 →+0.8▼ 1.3#63

ILL+4.1 →+9.0▲ 4.9#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

ILL

#93

Offense

ILL better ▶

#33

#53

Defense

◀ MD better

#103

+0.9 #13

Turnovers

◀ MD better

+0.1 #65

65 plays #89

Pace

◀ MD faster

63 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #84	25.9 #83	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #96	5.57 #74	ILL
PPA / play	+0.09 #81	+0.24 #128	MD
Success rate	39% #110	47% #128	Even

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	33.1 #31	23.4 #63	ILL
Yards / play	6.10 #41	5.47 #67	ILL
PPA / play	+0.21 #34	−0.01 #25	Even
Success rate	48% #24	40% #55	ILL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MD scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	6.0 #72	10.7 #29	16.7 #44	5.7 #75	3.0 #131	8.7 #124
ILL allowed	6.1 #88	7.1 #70	13.2 #77	5.3 #66	7.3 #97	12.7 #82

ILL scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	5.3 #86	11.0 #23	16.3 #49	8.8 #17	8.0 #39	16.8 #22
MD allowed	2.3 #10	6.8 #58	9.1 #21	5.2 #61	9.1 #125	14.3 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.